Experimental application · Weibull distribution
Calibrated crypto probability corridors, recorded without omission
An open empirical test: daily mathematical bounds evaluated strictly at 00:00 UTC against Binance market data.
Daily observation · 2026-10-26 · UTC
Study progress
— / 30 issue days
Next milestone — · preliminary until 30 issue days
Tail probability · 24h
- ADA17.5%
- AVAX15.1%
- LINK13.2%
- DOGE12.6%
- SOL12.0%
- XRP10.6%
- ETH10.5%
- BNB4.2%
- BTC4.1%
- TRX0.5%
Corridors closing today
Recently resolved
Latest resolved estimates, in chronological order.
- LINK · close within ±15% · 24h · 99.9%occurred
- LINK · close within ±10% · 24h · 98.9%occurred
- LINK · close within ±8% · 24h · 97.0%occurred
- LINK · close within ±5% · 24h · 86.9%occurred
- LINK · close within ±3% · 24h · 67.2%occurred
Showing 5 most recent · 240 total · — issue daysSee full history →
Market overview
Price corridors
No observations available.
What this distribution is chosen for
- Asymmetric tailsUpside and downside returns are fitted separately, each with its own shape and scale.
- Direct tail probabilityP(close beyond x) is computed from the fitted distribution, not from a normal approximation.
- Regime diagnosticCalibration is split by 30-day realized volatility, so a calm period is not mistaken for a general result.
The distribution choice is supported by published research (see Literature). Whether it delivers on the live ledger is a separate question, answered only by the ledger itself.