Experimental application · beta

Intraday Lab · shorter horizon (4h)

Observation study applying the same two-sided Weibull model to 4-hour windows for BTC, ETH and XRP. Each estimate is recorded with a SHA-256 hash before its window opens and resolved at the 4h close. Public results, kept separate from the main ledger and excluded from its calibration figures. Under development; methods may change and every change will be documented.

Estimates within the same day are correlated; the independent sample is the number of days, not rows. Offline 90-day backtest: calibration error below 6 pp on informative thresholds, with a known regime bias (conservative in calm periods).

Current window

No window recorded yet. The first estimates appear at the next 4h boundary (00, 04, 08, 12, 16, 20 UTC).

Resolved record

No windows resolved yet.