Observation ledger
Every estimate, regardless of outcome. Original records cannot be modified or deleted. Payload verification compares the record with its stored digest; no independent external timestamp is provided.
Daily manifests cover records from activation. Legacy records were not chained. No independent external timestamp exists; integrity verification does not establish model accuracy.
Price-level ledger
Persisted bounds and reference stops are evaluated against the target daily close. C+cap targets 85% before capping; final implied probabilities are recorded per observation. Legacy base-policy records use a separate 90% target. Stop events measure closing prices, not intraday execution.
100%
inside
0.0%
close below stop
10
resolved
| Issued UTC | Asset | Horizon | Lower bound | Upper bound | Stop | Close | Outcome | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-26 | ADA | 24h | $0.1934 | $0.2156 | $0.1885 | — | open until 2026-10-26 | |
| 2026-10-26 | ADA | 3d | $0.1842 | $0.2242 | $0.1771 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | |
| 2026-10-26 | ADA | 7d | $0.1730 | $0.2318 | $0.1608 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | |
| 2026-10-26 | AVAX | 3d | $8.13 | $9.72 | $8.16 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | |
| 2026-10-26 | AVAX | 24h | $8.48 | $9.38 | $8.35 | — | open until 2026-10-26 | |
| 2026-10-26 | AVAX | 7d | $7.75 | $10.00 | $7.58 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | |
| 2026-10-26 | BNB | 24h | $717 | $759 | $707 | — | open until 2026-10-26 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 82.9% |
| 2026-10-26 | BNB | 3d | $699 | $771 | $667 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 81.8% |
| 2026-10-26 | BNB | 7d | $676 | $787 | $591 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 83.2% |
| 2026-10-26 | BTC | 24h | $77,715 | $82,536 | $77,089 | — | open until 2026-10-26 | |
| 2026-10-26 | BTC | 3d | $75,781 | $84,140 | $74,563 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.5% |
| 2026-10-26 | BTC | 7d | $73,437 | $86,206 | $68,605 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.5% |
| 2026-10-26 | DOGE | 24h | $0.0734 | $0.0805 | $0.0729 | — | open until 2026-10-26 | |
| 2026-10-26 | DOGE | 7d | $0.0680 | $0.0850 | $0.0677 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | |
| 2026-10-26 | DOGE | 3d | $0.0708 | $0.0828 | $0.0703 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | |
| 2026-10-26 | ETH | 7d | $2,060 | $2,565 | $1,870 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | |
| 2026-10-26 | ETH | 3d | $2,153 | $2,492 | $2,060 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.3% |
| 2026-10-26 | ETH | 24h | $2,230 | $2,424 | $2,227 | — | open until 2026-10-26 | |
| 2026-10-26 | LINK | 7d | $10.09 | $12.83 | $9.75 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | |
| 2026-10-26 | LINK | 24h | $10.92 | $12.01 | $10.92 | — | open until 2026-10-26 | |
| 2026-10-26 | LINK | 3d | $10.54 | $12.38 | $10.40 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | |
| 2026-10-26 | SOL | 7d | $88.96 | $113 | $83.80 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.3% |
| 2026-10-26 | SOL | 24h | $96.86 | $106 | $96.07 | — | open until 2026-10-26 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.4% |
| 2026-10-26 | SOL | 3d | $93.12 | $109 | $91.60 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.1% |
| 2026-10-26 | TRX | 24h | $0.3265 | $0.3342 | $0.3246 | — | open until 2026-10-26 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 74.2% |
| 2026-10-26 | TRX | 7d | $0.3198 | $0.3400 | $0.3115 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 69.8% |
| 2026-10-26 | TRX | 3d | $0.3234 | $0.3366 | $0.3203 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 73.2% |
| 2026-10-26 | XRP | 24h | $1.24 | $1.35 | $1.24 | — | open until 2026-10-26 | |
| 2026-10-26 | XRP | 7d | $1.16 | $1.44 | $1.13 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | |
| 2026-10-26 | XRP | 3d | $1.20 | $1.39 | $1.19 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | |
| 2026-10-25 | ADA | 3d | $0.1871 | $0.2305 | $0.1805 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-25 | ADA | 24h | $0.1975 | $0.2202 | $0.1956 | $0.2042 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-25 | ADA | 7d | $0.1694 | $0.2452 | $0.1586 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | |
| 2026-10-25 | AVAX | 7d | $7.78 | $10.20 | $7.50 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | |
| 2026-10-25 | AVAX | 24h | $8.60 | $9.40 | $8.46 | $8.93 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-25 | AVAX | 3d | $8.25 | $9.78 | $8.05 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-25 | BNB | 24h | $720 | $759 | $711 | $739 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-25 | BNB | 3d | $700 | $772 | $656 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-25 | BNB | 7d | $669 | $793 | $601 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | |
| 2026-10-25 | BTC | 24h | $78,056 | $83,702 | $77,563 | $80,154 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-25 | BTC | 7d | $71,210 | $89,705 | $68,588 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | |
| 2026-10-25 | BTC | 3d | $75,402 | $85,996 | $73,923 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-25 | DOGE | 7d | $0.0688 | $0.0866 | $0.0686 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | |
| 2026-10-25 | DOGE | 3d | $0.0720 | $0.0836 | $0.0714 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-25 | DOGE | 24h | $0.0745 | $0.0809 | $0.0734 | $0.0769 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-25 | ETH | 7d | $2,089 | $2,598 | $1,909 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | |
| 2026-10-25 | ETH | 3d | $2,179 | $2,528 | $2,107 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-25 | ETH | 24h | $2,268 | $2,446 | $2,210 | $2,330 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-25 | LINK | 7d | $10.17 | $13.12 | $9.86 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | |
| 2026-10-25 | LINK | 24h | $11.17 | $12.11 | $11.04 | $11.46 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-25 | LINK | 3d | $10.74 | $12.54 | $10.50 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-25 | SOL | 7d | $86.48 | $117 | $83.03 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | |
| 2026-10-25 | SOL | 24h | $97.97 | $107 | $97.27 | $101 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-25 | SOL | 3d | $93.25 | $111 | $89.68 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-25 | TRX | 24h | $0.3248 | $0.3335 | $0.3197 | $0.3304 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-25 | TRX | 7d | $0.3149 | $0.3416 | $0.3067 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | |
| 2026-10-25 | TRX | 3d | $0.3206 | $0.3364 | $0.3146 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-25 | XRP | 3d | $1.20 | $1.41 | $1.19 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-25 | XRP | 7d | $1.16 | $1.47 | $1.13 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | |
| 2026-10-25 | XRP | 24h | $1.25 | $1.35 | $1.24 | $1.30 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
Event probabilities (240)filtered view · clear
1440 / 1440
rows / distinct keys consistent
60
event groups (asset × horizon × date; correlated)
0.075
Informative Brier · 10–90% (n=82)
0.026
All-event Brier (n=240) · max 100.0%
| Date | Observation | Model | 180d base rate | Lift (pp) | Informative (10–90%) | Outcome | Payload hash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | LINK · close increase ≤2% · 24h | 76.5% | 78.1% | -1.6 | yes | occurred | fd5db9a730 |
| 2026-10-25 | AVAX · close within ±5% · 24h | 84.9% | 81.3% | 3.6 | yes | occurred | 9fedf69383 |
| 2026-10-25 | ADA · close increase ≤3% · 24h | 83.3% | 84.4% | -1.1 | yes | occurred | 92880a020a |
| 2026-10-25 | LINK · close decline ≤3% · 24h | 83.0% | 75.0% | 8.0 | yes | occurred | e0f2a52c35 |
| 2026-10-25 | XRP · close increase ≤2% · 24h | 81.5% | 84.4% | -2.9 | yes | occurred | 4314af5da8 |
| 2026-10-25 | AVAX · close decline ≤2% · 24h | 73.3% | 75.0% | -1.7 | yes | occurred | b51e1bca84 |
| 2026-10-25 | DOGE · close within ±5% · 24h | 87.4% | 90.6% | -3.3 | yes | occurred | d89fcb876b |
| 2026-10-25 | SOL · close increase ≤2% · 24h | 79.1% | 93.8% | -14.6 | yes | occurred | c051caf141 |
| 2026-10-25 | ADA · close decline ≤2% · 24h | 69.3% | 75.0% | -5.7 | yes | occurred | 84da2cc1d9 |
| 2026-10-25 | ETH · close decline ≤2% · 24h | 79.2% | 81.3% | -2.1 | yes | occurred | 6b91a6ef99 |
| 2026-10-25 | LINK · close within ±3% · 24h | 67.2% | 68.8% | -1.5 | yes | occurred | c1d44dd113 |
| 2026-10-25 | BTC · close within ±2% · 24h | 71.4% | 84.4% | -13.0 | yes | occurred | 4e5567ecd5 |
| 2026-10-25 | ADA · close increase ≤2% · 24h | 77.3% | 78.1% | -0.9 | yes | occurred | d8a5d9e02f |
| 2026-10-25 | XRP · close within ±3% · 24h | 73.8% | 87.5% | -13.7 | yes | occurred | 532fed8e70 |
| 2026-10-25 | DOGE · close within ±3% · 24h | 70.8% | 75.0% | -4.2 | yes | occurred | 8d750d14e7 |
| 2026-10-25 | SOL · close within ±3% · 24h | 70.5% | 81.3% | -10.8 | yes | occurred | 3be13b39fd |
| 2026-10-25 | DOGE · close decline ≤2% · 24h | 75.0% | 75.0% | 0.0 | yes | occurred | 971a37059b |
| 2026-10-25 | SOL · close decline ≤2% · 24h | 75.4% | 78.1% | -2.8 | yes | occurred | 2183767601 |
| 2026-10-25 | LINK · close decline ≤2% · 24h | 73.5% | 68.8% | 4.7 | yes | occurred | 614b51e155 |
| 2026-10-25 | BNB · close within ±2% · 24h | 70.6% | 84.4% | -13.8 | yes | occurred | 69636c2a42 |
| 2026-10-25 | ETH · close within ±3% · 24h | 75.1% | 81.3% | -6.2 | yes | occurred | 8cd3aaa57d |
| 2026-10-25 | AVAX · close within ±3% · 24h | 66.6% | 65.6% | 1.0 | yes | occurred | d4d48147d6 |
| 2026-10-25 | AVAX · close beyond ±2% · 24h | 49.0% | 43.8% | 5.3 | yes | not occurred | 1ec258452a |
| 2026-10-25 | AVAX · close beyond ±3% · 24h | 33.4% | 34.4% | -1.0 | yes | not occurred | 31987a6f9e |
| 2026-10-25 | AVAX · close beyond ±5% · 24h | 15.2% | 18.8% | -3.6 | yes | not occurred | 4c99e6bb9e |
| 2026-10-25 | AVAX · close beyond ±8% · 24h | 4.5% | 6.3% | -1.7 | — | not occurred | a060d9b4c4 |
| 2026-10-25 | AVAX · close beyond ±10% · 24h | 2.0% | 3.1% | -1.1 | — | not occurred | 8e07ed82c8 |
| 2026-10-25 | AVAX · close beyond ±15% · 24h | 0.3% | 3.1% | -2.9 | — | not occurred | c59ba0f57f |
| 2026-10-25 | XRP · close within ±2% · 24h | 58.9% | 65.6% | -6.7 | yes | occurred | 13e42b6e5a |
| 2026-10-25 | SOL · close beyond ±2% · 24h | 45.5% | 25.0% | 20.5 | yes | not occurred | c3233821c4 |
| 2026-10-25 | SOL · close within ±2% · 24h | 54.5% | 75.0% | -20.5 | yes | occurred | 5615c5745c |
| 2026-10-25 | ETH · close beyond ±2% · 24h | 38.8% | 21.9% | 16.9 | yes | not occurred | e53eae51c8 |
| 2026-10-25 | ETH · close within ±2% · 24h | 61.2% | 78.1% | -16.9 | yes | occurred | 1bc1aff092 |
| 2026-10-25 | AVAX · close within ±2% · 24h | 51.0% | 56.3% | -5.3 | yes | occurred | 8b95dcd22c |
| 2026-10-25 | DOGE · close beyond ±2% · 24h | 44.3% | 37.5% | 6.8 | yes | not occurred | 1fd6b9d0d7 |
| 2026-10-25 | DOGE · close within ±2% · 24h | 55.7% | 62.5% | -6.8 | yes | occurred | addb744bb6 |
| 2026-10-25 | LINK · close beyond ±2% · 24h | 50.0% | 50.0% | 0.0 | yes | not occurred | bccafc93cb |
| 2026-10-25 | LINK · close beyond ±3% · 24h | 32.8% | 31.3% | 1.5 | yes | not occurred | 0a4d320a1d |
| 2026-10-25 | LINK · close beyond ±5% · 24h | 13.1% | 15.6% | -2.5 | yes | not occurred | f219a63e10 |
| 2026-10-25 | LINK · close beyond ±8% · 24h | 3.0% | 6.3% | -3.2 | — | not occurred | ae795b8c88 |
| 2026-10-25 | LINK · close beyond ±10% · 24h | 1.1% | 6.3% | -5.2 | — | not occurred | a32109bbc3 |
| 2026-10-25 | LINK · close beyond ±15% · 24h | 0.1% | 3.1% | -3.0 | — | not occurred | 4dd7171885 |
| 2026-10-25 | XRP · close beyond ±2% · 24h | 41.1% | 34.4% | 6.7 | yes | not occurred | 4376c5ee20 |
| 2026-10-25 | XRP · close beyond ±3% · 24h | 26.2% | 12.5% | 13.7 | yes | not occurred | e95eec6c19 |
| 2026-10-25 | XRP · close beyond ±5% · 24h | 10.7% | 6.3% | 4.4 | yes | not occurred | 4fa8119ac9 |
| 2026-10-25 | XRP · close beyond ±8% · 24h | 2.9% | 3.1% | -0.2 | — | not occurred | a86feb8584 |
| 2026-10-25 | XRP · close beyond ±10% · 24h | 1.3% | 3.1% | -1.9 | — | not occurred | 35b2f76520 |
| 2026-10-25 | XRP · close beyond ±15% · 24h | 0.2% | 3.1% | -3.0 | — | not occurred | ad1749dda7 |
| 2026-10-25 | SOL · close beyond ±15% · 24h | 0.1% | 3.1% | -3.0 | — | not occurred | 1f4c8ead14 |
| 2026-10-25 | SOL · close beyond ±10% · 24h | 1.2% | 3.1% | -1.9 | — | not occurred | f1ef372bae |