Observation ledger
Every estimate, regardless of outcome. Original records cannot be modified or deleted. Payload verification compares the record with its stored digest; no independent external timestamp is provided.
Daily manifests cover records from activation. Legacy records were not chained. No independent external timestamp exists; integrity verification does not establish model accuracy.
Price-level ledger
Persisted bounds and reference stops are evaluated against the target daily close. C+cap targets 85% before capping; final implied probabilities are recorded per observation. Legacy base-policy records use a separate 90% target. Stop events measure closing prices, not intraday execution.
100%
inside
0.0%
close below stop
10
resolved
| Issued UTC | Asset | Horizon | Lower bound | Upper bound | Stop | Close | Outcome | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-26 | ADA | 24h | $0.1934 | $0.2156 | $0.1885 | — | open until 2026-10-26 | |
| 2026-10-26 | ADA | 3d | $0.1842 | $0.2242 | $0.1771 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | |
| 2026-10-26 | ADA | 7d | $0.1730 | $0.2318 | $0.1608 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | |
| 2026-10-26 | AVAX | 3d | $8.13 | $9.72 | $8.16 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | |
| 2026-10-26 | AVAX | 24h | $8.48 | $9.38 | $8.35 | — | open until 2026-10-26 | |
| 2026-10-26 | AVAX | 7d | $7.75 | $10.00 | $7.58 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | |
| 2026-10-26 | BNB | 24h | $717 | $759 | $707 | — | open until 2026-10-26 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 82.9% |
| 2026-10-26 | BNB | 3d | $699 | $771 | $667 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 81.8% |
| 2026-10-26 | BNB | 7d | $676 | $787 | $591 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 83.2% |
| 2026-10-26 | BTC | 24h | $77,715 | $82,536 | $77,089 | — | open until 2026-10-26 | |
| 2026-10-26 | BTC | 3d | $75,781 | $84,140 | $74,563 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.5% |
| 2026-10-26 | BTC | 7d | $73,437 | $86,206 | $68,605 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.5% |
| 2026-10-26 | DOGE | 24h | $0.0734 | $0.0805 | $0.0729 | — | open until 2026-10-26 | |
| 2026-10-26 | DOGE | 7d | $0.0680 | $0.0850 | $0.0677 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | |
| 2026-10-26 | DOGE | 3d | $0.0708 | $0.0828 | $0.0703 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | |
| 2026-10-26 | ETH | 7d | $2,060 | $2,565 | $1,870 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | |
| 2026-10-26 | ETH | 3d | $2,153 | $2,492 | $2,060 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.3% |
| 2026-10-26 | ETH | 24h | $2,230 | $2,424 | $2,227 | — | open until 2026-10-26 | |
| 2026-10-26 | LINK | 7d | $10.09 | $12.83 | $9.75 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | |
| 2026-10-26 | LINK | 24h | $10.92 | $12.01 | $10.92 | — | open until 2026-10-26 | |
| 2026-10-26 | LINK | 3d | $10.54 | $12.38 | $10.40 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | |
| 2026-10-26 | SOL | 7d | $88.96 | $113 | $83.80 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.3% |
| 2026-10-26 | SOL | 24h | $96.86 | $106 | $96.07 | — | open until 2026-10-26 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.4% |
| 2026-10-26 | SOL | 3d | $93.12 | $109 | $91.60 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.1% |
| 2026-10-26 | TRX | 24h | $0.3265 | $0.3342 | $0.3246 | — | open until 2026-10-26 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 74.2% |
| 2026-10-26 | TRX | 7d | $0.3198 | $0.3400 | $0.3115 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 69.8% |
| 2026-10-26 | TRX | 3d | $0.3234 | $0.3366 | $0.3203 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 73.2% |
| 2026-10-26 | XRP | 24h | $1.24 | $1.35 | $1.24 | — | open until 2026-10-26 | |
| 2026-10-26 | XRP | 7d | $1.16 | $1.44 | $1.13 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | |
| 2026-10-26 | XRP | 3d | $1.20 | $1.39 | $1.19 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | |
| 2026-10-25 | ADA | 3d | $0.1871 | $0.2305 | $0.1805 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-25 | ADA | 24h | $0.1975 | $0.2202 | $0.1956 | $0.2042 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-25 | ADA | 7d | $0.1694 | $0.2452 | $0.1586 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | |
| 2026-10-25 | AVAX | 7d | $7.78 | $10.20 | $7.50 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | |
| 2026-10-25 | AVAX | 24h | $8.60 | $9.40 | $8.46 | $8.93 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-25 | AVAX | 3d | $8.25 | $9.78 | $8.05 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-25 | BNB | 24h | $720 | $759 | $711 | $739 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-25 | BNB | 3d | $700 | $772 | $656 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-25 | BNB | 7d | $669 | $793 | $601 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | |
| 2026-10-25 | BTC | 24h | $78,056 | $83,702 | $77,563 | $80,154 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-25 | BTC | 7d | $71,210 | $89,705 | $68,588 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | |
| 2026-10-25 | BTC | 3d | $75,402 | $85,996 | $73,923 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-25 | DOGE | 7d | $0.0688 | $0.0866 | $0.0686 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | |
| 2026-10-25 | DOGE | 3d | $0.0720 | $0.0836 | $0.0714 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-25 | DOGE | 24h | $0.0745 | $0.0809 | $0.0734 | $0.0769 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-25 | ETH | 7d | $2,089 | $2,598 | $1,909 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | |
| 2026-10-25 | ETH | 3d | $2,179 | $2,528 | $2,107 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-25 | ETH | 24h | $2,268 | $2,446 | $2,210 | $2,330 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-25 | LINK | 7d | $10.17 | $13.12 | $9.86 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | |
| 2026-10-25 | LINK | 24h | $11.17 | $12.11 | $11.04 | $11.46 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-25 | LINK | 3d | $10.74 | $12.54 | $10.50 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-25 | SOL | 7d | $86.48 | $117 | $83.03 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | |
| 2026-10-25 | SOL | 24h | $97.97 | $107 | $97.27 | $101 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-25 | SOL | 3d | $93.25 | $111 | $89.68 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-25 | TRX | 24h | $0.3248 | $0.3335 | $0.3197 | $0.3304 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-25 | TRX | 7d | $0.3149 | $0.3416 | $0.3067 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | |
| 2026-10-25 | TRX | 3d | $0.3206 | $0.3364 | $0.3146 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-25 | XRP | 3d | $1.20 | $1.41 | $1.19 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-25 | XRP | 7d | $1.16 | $1.47 | $1.13 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | |
| 2026-10-25 | XRP | 24h | $1.25 | $1.35 | $1.24 | $1.30 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
Event probabilities (480)filtered view · clear
1440 / 1440
rows / distinct keys consistent
60
event groups (asset × horizon × date; correlated)
0.075
Informative Brier · 10–90% (n=82)
0.026
All-event Brier (n=240) · max 100.0%
| Date | Observation | Model | 180d base rate | Lift (pp) | Informative (10–90%) | Outcome | Payload hash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-26 | BTC · close decline ≤3% · 7d | 71.9% | 75.8% | -4.0 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 0142bf8b88 |
| 2026-10-26 | BTC · close increase ≤2% · 7d | 69.7% | 68.1% | 1.5 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 0ad755bed1 |
| 2026-10-26 | AVAX · close increase ≤5% · 7d | 81.0% | 80.2% | 0.8 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 2aefc37c5a |
| 2026-10-26 | SOL · close increase ≤5% · 7d | 79.3% | 75.3% | 4.0 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 40b6d1918a |
| 2026-10-26 | BNB · close within ±8% · 7d | 85.5% | 89.0% | -3.5 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 74e8e3357e |
| 2026-10-26 | TRX · close decline ≤2% · 7d | 77.5% | 80.8% | -3.3 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 9dca1a2cf5 |
| 2026-10-26 | ETH · close increase ≤5% · 7d | 81.4% | 83.0% | -1.6 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | ca1f8db1fc |
| 2026-10-26 | LINK · close increase ≤3% · 7d | 68.8% | 62.6% | 6.2 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 0344a44e75 |
| 2026-10-26 | DOGE · close decline ≤5% · 7d | 68.3% | 68.7% | -0.3 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | f048ead272 |
| 2026-10-26 | TRX · close increase ≤3% · 7d | 84.4% | 86.3% | -1.8 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | b61e5cd641 |
| 2026-10-26 | BNB · close decline ≤3% · 7d | 72.6% | 75.8% | -3.2 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | c6caf7cc1f |
| 2026-10-26 | BNB · close within ±5% · 7d | 68.9% | 73.6% | -4.7 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | cc34f510d7 |
| 2026-10-26 | XRP · close beyond ±2% · 7d | 74.3% | 76.4% | -2.1 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 0fd887c91e |
| 2026-10-26 | ADA · close increase ≤3% · 7d | 72.2% | 63.7% | 8.5 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 088ddc776d |
| 2026-10-26 | LINK · close within ±10% · 7d | 78.5% | 75.8% | 2.7 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 136af489d4 |
| 2026-10-26 | AVAX · close increase ≤2% · 7d | 70.3% | 68.1% | 2.2 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | e15938e291 |
| 2026-10-26 | ADA · close increase ≤2% · 7d | 68.6% | 61.0% | 7.6 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | d14a0c5b39 |
| 2026-10-26 | XRP · close increase ≤3% · 7d | 77.6% | 78.6% | -1.0 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | d9af26b409 |
| 2026-10-26 | BTC · close within ±5% · 7d | 67.7% | 75.3% | -7.6 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | d842b601b7 |
| 2026-10-26 | DOGE · close within ±8% · 7d | 72.0% | 68.7% | 3.4 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | aa0f8058cb |
| 2026-10-26 | XRP · close increase ≤2% · 7d | 73.9% | 74.2% | -0.2 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 2d11f32a31 |
| 2026-10-26 | SOL · close increase ≤3% · 7d | 71.9% | 66.5% | 5.4 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 5a2f6709ee |
| 2026-10-26 | LINK · close beyond ±3% · 7d | 68.8% | 73.6% | -4.8 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 3e4249af46 |
| 2026-10-26 | ADA · close within ±10% · 7d | 70.3% | 63.2% | 7.1 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | ff48fe5bab |
| 2026-10-26 | ETH · close decline ≤3% · 7d | 67.5% | 71.4% | -3.9 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 0e81888109 |
| 2026-10-26 | ADA · close decline ≤5% · 7d | 63.4% | 62.6% | 0.8 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | e9cc99cc85 |
| 2026-10-26 | SOL · close decline ≤5% · 7d | 73.3% | 79.1% | -5.8 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 42686b611c |
| 2026-10-26 | LINK · close within ±8% · 7d | 69.3% | 63.7% | 5.6 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 27eafc0717 |
| 2026-10-26 | SOL · close within ±8% · 7d | 70.7% | 69.2% | 1.5 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 97a8798728 |
| 2026-10-26 | AVAX · close increase ≤3% · 7d | 74.6% | 71.4% | 3.2 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 2e00bdc026 |
| 2026-10-26 | ADA · close beyond ±3% · 7d | 74.1% | 83.0% | -8.8 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 60facd22d0 |
| 2026-10-26 | BNB · close increase ≤2% · 7d | 69.0% | 61.5% | 7.5 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 787876c86a |
| 2026-10-26 | ETH · close beyond ±2% · 7d | 70.5% | 64.8% | 5.7 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 0a7db8b52b |
| 2026-10-26 | TRX · close increase ≤2% · 7d | 72.6% | 76.9% | -4.3 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | fe138406ad |
| 2026-10-26 | LINK · close decline ≤5% · 7d | 72.9% | 76.4% | -3.5 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 9462d7b88e |
| 2026-10-26 | BNB · close beyond ±2% · 7d | 64.9% | 68.7% | -3.7 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 23497f2644 |
| 2026-10-26 | AVAX · close beyond ±2% · 7d | 75.7% | 77.5% | -1.8 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | f224ce9800 |
| 2026-10-26 | AVAX · close within ±8% · 7d | 68.8% | 71.4% | -2.7 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 93577141ce |
| 2026-10-26 | BTC · close beyond ±2% · 7d | 65.6% | 64.8% | 0.8 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 563ad06d2b |
| 2026-10-26 | AVAX · close within ±10% · 7d | 77.1% | 80.8% | -3.7 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 960be55763 |
| 2026-10-26 | ETH · close within ±8% · 7d | 75.2% | 79.7% | -4.5 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | a0ed8c2d26 |
| 2026-10-26 | SOL · close beyond ±2% · 7d | 75.4% | 74.7% | 0.6 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 387ca1a5ea |
| 2026-10-26 | ETH · close increase ≤3% · 7d | 73.2% | 76.4% | -3.1 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 93027cdebe |
| 2026-10-26 | BTC · close decline ≤2% · 7d | 64.7% | 66.5% | -1.8 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 76f1e679d6 |
| 2026-10-26 | BNB · close decline ≤2% · 7d | 66.0% | 69.2% | -3.2 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 45d9e9763a |
| 2026-10-26 | DOGE · close beyond ±3% · 7d | 66.8% | 63.2% | 3.6 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 69368ff6d8 |
| 2026-10-26 | AVAX · close beyond ±3% · 7d | 65.7% | 65.4% | 0.3 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | d67910fa39 |
| 2026-10-26 | XRP · close within ±8% · 7d | 74.1% | 79.1% | -5.0 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 2f7d56824a |
| 2026-10-26 | AVAX · close decline ≤5% · 7d | 69.9% | 75.3% | -5.4 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | ea4d921491 |
| 2026-10-26 | LINK · close increase ≤2% · 7d | 64.5% | 61.5% | 3.0 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 2df02012c1 |