Observation ledger
Every estimate, regardless of outcome. Original records cannot be modified or deleted. Payload verification compares the record with its stored digest; no independent external timestamp is provided.
Daily manifests cover records from activation. Legacy records were not chained. No independent external timestamp exists; integrity verification does not establish model accuracy.
Price-level ledger
Persisted bounds and reference stops are evaluated against the target daily close. C+cap targets 85% before capping; final implied probabilities are recorded per observation. Legacy base-policy records use a separate 90% target. Stop events measure closing prices, not intraday execution.
100%
inside
0.0%
close below stop
10
resolved
| Issued UTC | Asset | Horizon | Lower bound | Upper bound | Stop | Close | Outcome | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-26 | ADA | 24h | $0.1934 | $0.2156 | $0.1885 | — | open until 2026-10-26 | |
| 2026-10-26 | ADA | 3d | $0.1842 | $0.2242 | $0.1771 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | |
| 2026-10-26 | ADA | 7d | $0.1730 | $0.2318 | $0.1608 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | |
| 2026-10-26 | AVAX | 3d | $8.13 | $9.72 | $8.16 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | |
| 2026-10-26 | AVAX | 24h | $8.48 | $9.38 | $8.35 | — | open until 2026-10-26 | |
| 2026-10-26 | AVAX | 7d | $7.75 | $10.00 | $7.58 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | |
| 2026-10-26 | BNB | 24h | $717 | $759 | $707 | — | open until 2026-10-26 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 82.9% |
| 2026-10-26 | BNB | 3d | $699 | $771 | $667 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 81.8% |
| 2026-10-26 | BNB | 7d | $676 | $787 | $591 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 83.2% |
| 2026-10-26 | BTC | 24h | $77,715 | $82,536 | $77,089 | — | open until 2026-10-26 | |
| 2026-10-26 | BTC | 3d | $75,781 | $84,140 | $74,563 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.5% |
| 2026-10-26 | BTC | 7d | $73,437 | $86,206 | $68,605 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.5% |
| 2026-10-26 | DOGE | 24h | $0.0734 | $0.0805 | $0.0729 | — | open until 2026-10-26 | |
| 2026-10-26 | DOGE | 7d | $0.0680 | $0.0850 | $0.0677 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | |
| 2026-10-26 | DOGE | 3d | $0.0708 | $0.0828 | $0.0703 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | |
| 2026-10-26 | ETH | 7d | $2,060 | $2,565 | $1,870 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | |
| 2026-10-26 | ETH | 3d | $2,153 | $2,492 | $2,060 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.3% |
| 2026-10-26 | ETH | 24h | $2,230 | $2,424 | $2,227 | — | open until 2026-10-26 | |
| 2026-10-26 | LINK | 7d | $10.09 | $12.83 | $9.75 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | |
| 2026-10-26 | LINK | 24h | $10.92 | $12.01 | $10.92 | — | open until 2026-10-26 | |
| 2026-10-26 | LINK | 3d | $10.54 | $12.38 | $10.40 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | |
| 2026-10-26 | SOL | 7d | $88.96 | $113 | $83.80 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.3% |
| 2026-10-26 | SOL | 24h | $96.86 | $106 | $96.07 | — | open until 2026-10-26 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.4% |
| 2026-10-26 | SOL | 3d | $93.12 | $109 | $91.60 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.1% |
| 2026-10-26 | TRX | 24h | $0.3265 | $0.3342 | $0.3246 | — | open until 2026-10-26 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 74.2% |
| 2026-10-26 | TRX | 7d | $0.3198 | $0.3400 | $0.3115 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 69.8% |
| 2026-10-26 | TRX | 3d | $0.3234 | $0.3366 | $0.3203 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 73.2% |
| 2026-10-26 | XRP | 24h | $1.24 | $1.35 | $1.24 | — | open until 2026-10-26 | |
| 2026-10-26 | XRP | 7d | $1.16 | $1.44 | $1.13 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | |
| 2026-10-26 | XRP | 3d | $1.20 | $1.39 | $1.19 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | |
| 2026-10-25 | ADA | 3d | $0.1871 | $0.2305 | $0.1805 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-25 | ADA | 24h | $0.1975 | $0.2202 | $0.1956 | $0.2042 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-25 | ADA | 7d | $0.1694 | $0.2452 | $0.1586 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | |
| 2026-10-25 | AVAX | 7d | $7.78 | $10.20 | $7.50 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | |
| 2026-10-25 | AVAX | 24h | $8.60 | $9.40 | $8.46 | $8.93 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-25 | AVAX | 3d | $8.25 | $9.78 | $8.05 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-25 | BNB | 24h | $720 | $759 | $711 | $739 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-25 | BNB | 3d | $700 | $772 | $656 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-25 | BNB | 7d | $669 | $793 | $601 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | |
| 2026-10-25 | BTC | 24h | $78,056 | $83,702 | $77,563 | $80,154 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-25 | BTC | 7d | $71,210 | $89,705 | $68,588 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | |
| 2026-10-25 | BTC | 3d | $75,402 | $85,996 | $73,923 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-25 | DOGE | 7d | $0.0688 | $0.0866 | $0.0686 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | |
| 2026-10-25 | DOGE | 3d | $0.0720 | $0.0836 | $0.0714 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-25 | DOGE | 24h | $0.0745 | $0.0809 | $0.0734 | $0.0769 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-25 | ETH | 7d | $2,089 | $2,598 | $1,909 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | |
| 2026-10-25 | ETH | 3d | $2,179 | $2,528 | $2,107 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-25 | ETH | 24h | $2,268 | $2,446 | $2,210 | $2,330 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-25 | LINK | 7d | $10.17 | $13.12 | $9.86 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | |
| 2026-10-25 | LINK | 24h | $11.17 | $12.11 | $11.04 | $11.46 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-25 | LINK | 3d | $10.74 | $12.54 | $10.50 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-25 | SOL | 7d | $86.48 | $117 | $83.03 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | |
| 2026-10-25 | SOL | 24h | $97.97 | $107 | $97.27 | $101 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-25 | SOL | 3d | $93.25 | $111 | $89.68 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-25 | TRX | 24h | $0.3248 | $0.3335 | $0.3197 | $0.3304 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-25 | TRX | 7d | $0.3149 | $0.3416 | $0.3067 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | |
| 2026-10-25 | TRX | 3d | $0.3206 | $0.3364 | $0.3146 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-25 | XRP | 3d | $1.20 | $1.41 | $1.19 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-25 | XRP | 7d | $1.16 | $1.47 | $1.13 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | |
| 2026-10-25 | XRP | 24h | $1.25 | $1.35 | $1.24 | $1.30 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
Event probabilities (480)filtered view · clear
1440 / 1440
rows / distinct keys consistent
60
event groups (asset × horizon × date; correlated)
0.075
Informative Brier · 10–90% (n=82)
0.026
All-event Brier (n=240) · max 100.0%
| Date | Observation | Model | 180d base rate | Lift (pp) | Informative (10–90%) | Outcome | Payload hash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-26 | DOGE · close within ±3% · 7d | 33.2% | 36.8% | -3.6 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 65e4a492b3 |
| 2026-10-26 | DOGE · close within ±5% · 7d | 51.9% | 50.0% | 1.9 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 6937203775 |
| 2026-10-26 | DOGE · close decline ≤2% · 7d | 48.7% | 51.6% | -3.0 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | f1f96812df |
| 2026-10-26 | DOGE · close decline ≤3% · 7d | 55.6% | 59.9% | -4.3 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 50fbb06977 |
| 2026-10-26 | DOGE · close beyond ±5% · 7d | 48.1% | 50.0% | -1.9 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 92127e9d63 |
| 2026-10-26 | DOGE · close beyond ±8% · 7d | 28.0% | 31.3% | -3.4 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 275a7df7f5 |
| 2026-10-26 | DOGE · close beyond ±10% · 7d | 19.0% | 19.8% | -0.7 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | e968944a4f |
| 2026-10-26 | DOGE · close beyond ±15% · 7d | 7.1% | 7.1% | 0.0 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | 558da7e6c4 |
| 2026-10-26 | ADA · close within ±2% · 7d | 17.2% | 12.1% | 5.1 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 381d8fdef1 |
| 2026-10-26 | ADA · close within ±3% · 7d | 25.9% | 17.0% | 8.8 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 73f47f19a8 |
| 2026-10-26 | ADA · close within ±5% · 7d | 41.7% | 34.1% | 7.7 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 4622b0360b |
| 2026-10-26 | ADA · close within ±8% · 7d | 60.8% | 52.2% | 8.6 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 4ec1b42620 |
| 2026-10-26 | ADA · close decline ≤2% · 7d | 48.6% | 50.5% | -2.0 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 60dc01e4a2 |
| 2026-10-26 | ADA · close decline ≤3% · 7d | 53.6% | 52.8% | 0.9 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 7ae89874bf |
| 2026-10-26 | ADA · close beyond ±5% · 7d | 58.3% | 65.9% | -7.7 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 21c4cdca62 |
| 2026-10-26 | ADA · close beyond ±8% · 7d | 39.3% | 47.8% | -8.5 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 430246c921 |
| 2026-10-26 | ADA · close beyond ±10% · 7d | 29.7% | 36.8% | -7.1 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 62c518c6e5 |
| 2026-10-26 | ADA · close beyond ±15% · 7d | 14.2% | 17.0% | -2.9 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 8535fcacde |
| 2026-10-26 | TRX · close within ±2% · 7d | 50.1% | 58.2% | -8.1 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 6e571599ec |
| 2026-10-26 | TRX · close beyond ±2% · 7d | 49.9% | 41.8% | 8.1 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 123196966d |
| 2026-10-26 | TRX · close beyond ±3% · 7d | 30.5% | 24.7% | 5.8 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 045fb4226c |
| 2026-10-26 | TRX · close beyond ±5% · 7d | 10.0% | 8.8% | 1.2 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 43ca5d20ed |
| 2026-10-26 | TRX · close beyond ±8% · 7d | 1.7% | 1.7% | 0.0 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | 98f950cc31 |
| 2026-10-26 | TRX · close beyond ±10% · 7d | 0.5% | 1.1% | -0.6 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | 119212348f |
| 2026-10-26 | TRX · close beyond ±15% · 7d | 0.5% | 0.5% | -0.0 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | 91ee124031 |
| 2026-10-26 | LINK · close beyond ±5% · 7d | 50.6% | 57.1% | -6.5 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | e35014548b |
| 2026-10-26 | LINK · close beyond ±8% · 7d | 30.6% | 36.3% | -5.6 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 5e0a686143 |
| 2026-10-26 | LINK · close beyond ±10% · 7d | 21.5% | 24.2% | -2.7 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 4684d42455 |
| 2026-10-26 | LINK · close beyond ±15% · 7d | 8.4% | 9.3% | -0.9 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | 8a2ac4a2c8 |
| 2026-10-26 | AVAX · close within ±2% · 7d | 24.3% | 22.5% | 1.7 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 2ab847ca4e |
| 2026-10-26 | AVAX · close within ±3% · 7d | 34.3% | 34.6% | -0.3 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 5764a55e8d |
| 2026-10-26 | AVAX · close within ±5% · 7d | 50.9% | 56.0% | -5.1 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | f8b198ecf2 |
| 2026-10-26 | AVAX · close decline ≤2% · 7d | 54.0% | 53.8% | 0.1 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 2c6b1732f2 |
| 2026-10-26 | AVAX · close decline ≤3% · 7d | 59.7% | 62.6% | -2.9 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 95f5cda3f7 |
| 2026-10-26 | AVAX · close beyond ±8% · 7d | 31.2% | 28.6% | 2.6 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 8321d66a4b |
| 2026-10-26 | AVAX · close beyond ±10% · 7d | 22.9% | 19.2% | 3.7 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 51e9b4117d |
| 2026-10-26 | AVAX · close beyond ±15% · 7d | 10.5% | 10.4% | 0.1 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 87e22ac971 |
| 2026-10-26 | LINK · close within ±2% · 7d | 20.7% | 19.8% | 0.9 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | e2adaa1fd2 |
| 2026-10-26 | LINK · close within ±3% · 7d | 31.1% | 26.4% | 4.8 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 9a3e5179bb |
| 2026-10-26 | LINK · close within ±5% · 7d | 49.4% | 42.9% | 6.5 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 37c948c0f6 |
| 2026-10-25 | TRX · close increase ≤15% · 7d | 100.0% | 96.9% | 3.1 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | 6a9a3ccbdf |
| 2026-10-25 | TRX · close decline ≤15% · 7d | 100.0% | 96.9% | 3.1 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | 253aaae1ca |
| 2026-10-25 | TRX · close within ±15% · 7d | 100.0% | 96.9% | 3.1 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | 302dd03d59 |
| 2026-10-25 | TRX · close increase ≤10% · 7d | 100.0% | 96.9% | 3.1 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | bf1d85ae35 |
| 2026-10-25 | TRX · close decline ≤10% · 7d | 99.5% | 96.9% | 2.6 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | f80cb223a9 |
| 2026-10-25 | TRX · close within ±10% · 7d | 99.5% | 96.9% | 2.6 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | 9669708dd4 |
| 2026-10-25 | BNB · close increase ≤15% · 7d | 99.5% | 96.9% | 2.6 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | b6a28e2909 |
| 2026-10-25 | TRX · close increase ≤8% · 7d | 99.7% | 96.9% | 2.8 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | 218099322d |
| 2026-10-25 | BTC · close increase ≤15% · 7d | 98.9% | 96.9% | 2.0 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | 2f0a356e38 |
| 2026-10-25 | BTC · close decline ≤10% · 7d | 94.8% | 96.9% | -2.1 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | 7eb58305e2 |