Observation ledger
Every estimate, regardless of outcome. Original records cannot be modified or deleted. Payload verification compares the record with its stored digest; no independent external timestamp is provided.
Daily manifests cover records from activation. Legacy records were not chained. No independent external timestamp exists; integrity verification does not establish model accuracy.
Price-level ledger
Persisted bounds and reference stops are evaluated against the target daily close. C+cap targets 85% before capping; final implied probabilities are recorded per observation. Legacy base-policy records use a separate 90% target. Stop events measure closing prices, not intraday execution.
100%
inside
0.0%
close below stop
10
resolved
| Issued UTC | Asset | Horizon | Lower bound | Upper bound | Stop | Close | Outcome | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-26 | ADA | 24h | $0.1934 | $0.2156 | $0.1885 | — | open until 2026-10-26 | |
| 2026-10-26 | ADA | 3d | $0.1842 | $0.2242 | $0.1771 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | |
| 2026-10-26 | ADA | 7d | $0.1730 | $0.2318 | $0.1608 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | |
| 2026-10-26 | AVAX | 3d | $8.13 | $9.72 | $8.16 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | |
| 2026-10-26 | AVAX | 24h | $8.48 | $9.38 | $8.35 | — | open until 2026-10-26 | |
| 2026-10-26 | AVAX | 7d | $7.75 | $10.00 | $7.58 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | |
| 2026-10-26 | BNB | 24h | $717 | $759 | $707 | — | open until 2026-10-26 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 82.9% |
| 2026-10-26 | BNB | 3d | $699 | $771 | $667 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 81.8% |
| 2026-10-26 | BNB | 7d | $676 | $787 | $591 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 83.2% |
| 2026-10-26 | BTC | 24h | $77,715 | $82,536 | $77,089 | — | open until 2026-10-26 | |
| 2026-10-26 | BTC | 3d | $75,781 | $84,140 | $74,563 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.5% |
| 2026-10-26 | BTC | 7d | $73,437 | $86,206 | $68,605 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.5% |
| 2026-10-26 | DOGE | 24h | $0.0734 | $0.0805 | $0.0729 | — | open until 2026-10-26 | |
| 2026-10-26 | DOGE | 7d | $0.0680 | $0.0850 | $0.0677 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | |
| 2026-10-26 | DOGE | 3d | $0.0708 | $0.0828 | $0.0703 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | |
| 2026-10-26 | ETH | 7d | $2,060 | $2,565 | $1,870 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | |
| 2026-10-26 | ETH | 3d | $2,153 | $2,492 | $2,060 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.3% |
| 2026-10-26 | ETH | 24h | $2,230 | $2,424 | $2,227 | — | open until 2026-10-26 | |
| 2026-10-26 | LINK | 7d | $10.09 | $12.83 | $9.75 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | |
| 2026-10-26 | LINK | 24h | $10.92 | $12.01 | $10.92 | — | open until 2026-10-26 | |
| 2026-10-26 | LINK | 3d | $10.54 | $12.38 | $10.40 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | |
| 2026-10-26 | SOL | 7d | $88.96 | $113 | $83.80 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.3% |
| 2026-10-26 | SOL | 24h | $96.86 | $106 | $96.07 | — | open until 2026-10-26 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.4% |
| 2026-10-26 | SOL | 3d | $93.12 | $109 | $91.60 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.1% |
| 2026-10-26 | TRX | 24h | $0.3265 | $0.3342 | $0.3246 | — | open until 2026-10-26 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 74.2% |
| 2026-10-26 | TRX | 7d | $0.3198 | $0.3400 | $0.3115 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 69.8% |
| 2026-10-26 | TRX | 3d | $0.3234 | $0.3366 | $0.3203 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 73.2% |
| 2026-10-26 | XRP | 24h | $1.24 | $1.35 | $1.24 | — | open until 2026-10-26 | |
| 2026-10-26 | XRP | 7d | $1.16 | $1.44 | $1.13 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | |
| 2026-10-26 | XRP | 3d | $1.20 | $1.39 | $1.19 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | |
| 2026-10-25 | ADA | 3d | $0.1871 | $0.2305 | $0.1805 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-25 | ADA | 24h | $0.1975 | $0.2202 | $0.1956 | $0.2042 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-25 | ADA | 7d | $0.1694 | $0.2452 | $0.1586 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | |
| 2026-10-25 | AVAX | 7d | $7.78 | $10.20 | $7.50 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | |
| 2026-10-25 | AVAX | 24h | $8.60 | $9.40 | $8.46 | $8.93 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-25 | AVAX | 3d | $8.25 | $9.78 | $8.05 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-25 | BNB | 24h | $720 | $759 | $711 | $739 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-25 | BNB | 3d | $700 | $772 | $656 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-25 | BNB | 7d | $669 | $793 | $601 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | |
| 2026-10-25 | BTC | 24h | $78,056 | $83,702 | $77,563 | $80,154 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-25 | BTC | 7d | $71,210 | $89,705 | $68,588 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | |
| 2026-10-25 | BTC | 3d | $75,402 | $85,996 | $73,923 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-25 | DOGE | 7d | $0.0688 | $0.0866 | $0.0686 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | |
| 2026-10-25 | DOGE | 3d | $0.0720 | $0.0836 | $0.0714 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-25 | DOGE | 24h | $0.0745 | $0.0809 | $0.0734 | $0.0769 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-25 | ETH | 7d | $2,089 | $2,598 | $1,909 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | |
| 2026-10-25 | ETH | 3d | $2,179 | $2,528 | $2,107 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-25 | ETH | 24h | $2,268 | $2,446 | $2,210 | $2,330 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-25 | LINK | 7d | $10.17 | $13.12 | $9.86 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | |
| 2026-10-25 | LINK | 24h | $11.17 | $12.11 | $11.04 | $11.46 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-25 | LINK | 3d | $10.74 | $12.54 | $10.50 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-25 | SOL | 7d | $86.48 | $117 | $83.03 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | |
| 2026-10-25 | SOL | 24h | $97.97 | $107 | $97.27 | $101 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-25 | SOL | 3d | $93.25 | $111 | $89.68 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-25 | TRX | 24h | $0.3248 | $0.3335 | $0.3197 | $0.3304 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-25 | TRX | 7d | $0.3149 | $0.3416 | $0.3067 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | |
| 2026-10-25 | TRX | 3d | $0.3206 | $0.3364 | $0.3146 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-25 | XRP | 3d | $1.20 | $1.41 | $1.19 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-25 | XRP | 7d | $1.16 | $1.47 | $1.13 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | |
| 2026-10-25 | XRP | 24h | $1.25 | $1.35 | $1.24 | $1.30 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
Event probabilities (480)filtered view · clear
1440 / 1440
rows / distinct keys consistent
60
event groups (asset × horizon × date; correlated)
0.075
Informative Brier · 10–90% (n=82)
0.026
All-event Brier (n=240) · max 100.0%
| Date | Observation | Model | 180d base rate | Lift (pp) | Informative (10–90%) | Outcome | Payload hash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | ADA · close increase ≤10% · 7d | 88.3% | 87.5% | 0.8 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | 123f843bba |
| 2026-10-25 | XRP · close decline ≤10% · 7d | 90.9% | 93.8% | -2.9 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | 436db568df |
| 2026-10-25 | LINK · close increase ≤10% · 7d | 89.3% | 78.1% | 11.2 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | 87a288f437 |
| 2026-10-25 | AVAX · close increase ≤8% · 7d | 87.4% | 93.8% | -6.3 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | dcb62b73b2 |
| 2026-10-25 | ETH · close increase ≤10% · 7d | 92.4% | 96.9% | -4.5 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | da8221febc |
| 2026-10-25 | ADA · close beyond ±2% · 7d | 82.8% | 81.3% | 1.5 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | c249449c15 |
| 2026-10-25 | XRP · close increase ≤3% · 7d | 77.4% | 87.5% | -10.1 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | 8142b17919 |
| 2026-10-25 | LINK · close decline ≤10% · 7d | 89.1% | 90.6% | -1.5 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | 6200c17564 |
| 2026-10-25 | ADA · close within ±15% · 7d | 85.9% | 93.8% | -7.9 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | b34288f708 |
| 2026-10-25 | BTC · close decline ≤5% · 7d | 82.4% | 96.9% | -14.4 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | 06e00332f3 |
| 2026-10-25 | AVAX · close decline ≤10% · 7d | 86.9% | 87.5% | -0.6 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | 8960c59892 |
| 2026-10-25 | SOL · close within ±10% · 7d | 78.9% | 87.5% | -8.6 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | 59442acda7 |
| 2026-10-25 | LINK · close decline ≤8% · 7d | 84.2% | 84.4% | -0.2 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | 6a752f53eb |
| 2026-10-25 | XRP · close increase ≤5% · 7d | 83.0% | 87.5% | -4.5 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | 1834d34082 |
| 2026-10-25 | BNB · close increase ≤5% · 7d | 86.7% | 96.9% | -10.2 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | 69c98de2a8 |
| 2026-10-25 | BNB · close within ±8% · 7d | 85.5% | 96.9% | -11.4 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | 845d5882a1 |
| 2026-10-25 | XRP · close decline ≤5% · 7d | 72.2% | 59.4% | 12.8 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | 5c2e4dffab |
| 2026-10-25 | ETH · close increase ≤8% · 7d | 89.1% | 96.9% | -7.8 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | 0d33dca752 |
| 2026-10-25 | LINK · close increase ≤8% · 7d | 85.2% | 75.0% | 10.2 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | 92e649540f |
| 2026-10-25 | XRP · close decline ≤8% · 7d | 85.4% | 90.6% | -5.2 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | bbafd26124 |
| 2026-10-25 | DOGE · close within ±15% · 7d | 92.8% | 96.9% | -4.0 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | 3da7ad50b2 |
| 2026-10-25 | SOL · close increase ≤3% · 7d | 71.7% | 87.5% | -15.8 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | 56666ece95 |
| 2026-10-25 | ETH · close increase ≤5% · 7d | 81.3% | 96.9% | -15.5 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | c55bfe9dfa |
| 2026-10-25 | LINK · close within ±15% · 7d | 91.5% | 90.6% | 0.9 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | ca937056eb |
| 2026-10-25 | BNB · close decline ≤5% · 7d | 82.2% | 87.5% | -5.3 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | 03c60cf177 |
| 2026-10-25 | AVAX · close within ±15% · 7d | 89.5% | 93.8% | -4.2 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | 4ec75d2ed0 |
| 2026-10-25 | ADA · close beyond ±3% · 7d | 74.0% | 71.9% | 2.1 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | b71f42c3c2 |
| 2026-10-25 | BTC · close increase ≤3% · 7d | 75.8% | 87.5% | -11.7 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | 089c409f7d |
| 2026-10-25 | SOL · close increase ≤5% · 7d | 79.2% | 87.5% | -8.3 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | 42a233d5b9 |
| 2026-10-25 | BNB · close increase ≤3% · 7d | 76.3% | 93.8% | -17.4 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | 66b4a565ce |
| 2026-10-25 | XRP · close increase ≤2% · 7d | 73.7% | 84.4% | -10.7 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | c20a47f607 |
| 2026-10-25 | DOGE · close increase ≤3% · 7d | 77.5% | 87.5% | -10.0 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | 14fafd3dc9 |
| 2026-10-25 | ETH · close decline ≤5% · 7d | 76.9% | 75.0% | 1.9 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | 298d1e15d3 |
| 2026-10-25 | AVAX · close increase ≤2% · 7d | 70.3% | 78.1% | -7.8 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | d282ee3029 |
| 2026-10-25 | TRX · close decline ≤2% · 7d | 77.3% | 81.3% | -4.0 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | c7e1ae1da5 |
| 2026-10-25 | BTC · close decline ≤3% · 7d | 72.0% | 84.4% | -12.4 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | dfc621270b |
| 2026-10-25 | TRX · close within ±5% · 7d | 89.8% | 96.9% | -7.0 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | ea6a9c9ca7 |
| 2026-10-25 | BNB · close within ±5% · 7d | 68.9% | 87.5% | -18.6 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | 7ddcab4ffb |
| 2026-10-25 | DOGE · close decline ≤10% · 7d | 89.0% | 90.6% | -1.7 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | d34308a0ab |
| 2026-10-25 | ETH · close within ±10% · 7d | 82.5% | 96.9% | -14.4 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | 9f620aa69b |
| 2026-10-25 | ETH · close increase ≤3% · 7d | 73.2% | 93.8% | -20.6 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | 8764f9ae99 |
| 2026-10-25 | LINK · close increase ≤5% · 7d | 76.3% | 75.0% | 1.3 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | b4f4872be6 |
| 2026-10-25 | DOGE · close increase ≤2% · 7d | 73.6% | 87.5% | -13.9 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | 929f83a974 |
| 2026-10-25 | DOGE · close within ±8% · 7d | 72.0% | 65.6% | 6.4 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | ca47bde488 |
| 2026-10-25 | ADA · close decline ≤8% · 7d | 75.8% | 81.3% | -5.4 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | 8471c714c1 |
| 2026-10-25 | ETH · close beyond ±2% · 7d | 70.5% | 56.3% | 14.2 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | 06ee9a3a9b |
| 2026-10-25 | ADA · close increase ≤8% · 7d | 85.0% | 81.3% | 3.8 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | 416017903d |
| 2026-10-25 | BTC · close increase ≤2% · 7d | 69.4% | 75.0% | -5.6 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | eea17997f6 |
| 2026-10-25 | BTC · close within ±5% · 7d | 67.6% | 96.9% | -29.3 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | a89fce0ebe |
| 2026-10-25 | XRP · close beyond ±2% · 7d | 74.5% | 75.0% | -0.5 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | 30c31e9365 |