Observation ledger
Every estimate, regardless of outcome. Original records cannot be modified or deleted. Payload verification compares the record with its stored digest; no independent external timestamp is provided.
Daily manifests cover records from activation. Legacy records were not chained. No independent external timestamp exists; integrity verification does not establish model accuracy.
Price-level ledger
Persisted bounds and reference stops are evaluated against the target daily close. C+cap targets 85% before capping; final implied probabilities are recorded per observation. Legacy base-policy records use a separate 90% target. Stop events measure closing prices, not intraday execution.
100%
inside
0.0%
close below stop
10
resolved
| Issued UTC | Asset | Horizon | Lower bound | Upper bound | Stop | Close | Outcome | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-26 | ADA | 24h | $0.1934 | $0.2156 | $0.1885 | — | open until 2026-10-26 | |
| 2026-10-26 | ADA | 3d | $0.1842 | $0.2242 | $0.1771 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | |
| 2026-10-26 | ADA | 7d | $0.1730 | $0.2318 | $0.1608 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | |
| 2026-10-26 | AVAX | 3d | $8.13 | $9.72 | $8.16 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | |
| 2026-10-26 | AVAX | 24h | $8.48 | $9.38 | $8.35 | — | open until 2026-10-26 | |
| 2026-10-26 | AVAX | 7d | $7.75 | $10.00 | $7.58 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | |
| 2026-10-26 | BNB | 24h | $717 | $759 | $707 | — | open until 2026-10-26 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 82.9% |
| 2026-10-26 | BNB | 3d | $699 | $771 | $667 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 81.8% |
| 2026-10-26 | BNB | 7d | $676 | $787 | $591 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 83.2% |
| 2026-10-26 | BTC | 24h | $77,715 | $82,536 | $77,089 | — | open until 2026-10-26 | |
| 2026-10-26 | BTC | 3d | $75,781 | $84,140 | $74,563 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.5% |
| 2026-10-26 | BTC | 7d | $73,437 | $86,206 | $68,605 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.5% |
| 2026-10-26 | DOGE | 24h | $0.0734 | $0.0805 | $0.0729 | — | open until 2026-10-26 | |
| 2026-10-26 | DOGE | 7d | $0.0680 | $0.0850 | $0.0677 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | |
| 2026-10-26 | DOGE | 3d | $0.0708 | $0.0828 | $0.0703 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | |
| 2026-10-26 | ETH | 7d | $2,060 | $2,565 | $1,870 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | |
| 2026-10-26 | ETH | 3d | $2,153 | $2,492 | $2,060 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.3% |
| 2026-10-26 | ETH | 24h | $2,230 | $2,424 | $2,227 | — | open until 2026-10-26 | |
| 2026-10-26 | LINK | 7d | $10.09 | $12.83 | $9.75 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | |
| 2026-10-26 | LINK | 24h | $10.92 | $12.01 | $10.92 | — | open until 2026-10-26 | |
| 2026-10-26 | LINK | 3d | $10.54 | $12.38 | $10.40 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | |
| 2026-10-26 | SOL | 7d | $88.96 | $113 | $83.80 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.3% |
| 2026-10-26 | SOL | 24h | $96.86 | $106 | $96.07 | — | open until 2026-10-26 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.4% |
| 2026-10-26 | SOL | 3d | $93.12 | $109 | $91.60 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.1% |
| 2026-10-26 | TRX | 24h | $0.3265 | $0.3342 | $0.3246 | — | open until 2026-10-26 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 74.2% |
| 2026-10-26 | TRX | 7d | $0.3198 | $0.3400 | $0.3115 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 69.8% |
| 2026-10-26 | TRX | 3d | $0.3234 | $0.3366 | $0.3203 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 73.2% |
| 2026-10-26 | XRP | 24h | $1.24 | $1.35 | $1.24 | — | open until 2026-10-26 | |
| 2026-10-26 | XRP | 7d | $1.16 | $1.44 | $1.13 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | |
| 2026-10-26 | XRP | 3d | $1.20 | $1.39 | $1.19 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | |
| 2026-10-25 | ADA | 3d | $0.1871 | $0.2305 | $0.1805 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-25 | ADA | 24h | $0.1975 | $0.2202 | $0.1956 | $0.2042 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-25 | ADA | 7d | $0.1694 | $0.2452 | $0.1586 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | |
| 2026-10-25 | AVAX | 7d | $7.78 | $10.20 | $7.50 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | |
| 2026-10-25 | AVAX | 24h | $8.60 | $9.40 | $8.46 | $8.93 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-25 | AVAX | 3d | $8.25 | $9.78 | $8.05 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-25 | BNB | 24h | $720 | $759 | $711 | $739 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-25 | BNB | 3d | $700 | $772 | $656 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-25 | BNB | 7d | $669 | $793 | $601 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | |
| 2026-10-25 | BTC | 24h | $78,056 | $83,702 | $77,563 | $80,154 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-25 | BTC | 7d | $71,210 | $89,705 | $68,588 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | |
| 2026-10-25 | BTC | 3d | $75,402 | $85,996 | $73,923 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-25 | DOGE | 7d | $0.0688 | $0.0866 | $0.0686 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | |
| 2026-10-25 | DOGE | 3d | $0.0720 | $0.0836 | $0.0714 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-25 | DOGE | 24h | $0.0745 | $0.0809 | $0.0734 | $0.0769 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-25 | ETH | 7d | $2,089 | $2,598 | $1,909 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | |
| 2026-10-25 | ETH | 3d | $2,179 | $2,528 | $2,107 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-25 | ETH | 24h | $2,268 | $2,446 | $2,210 | $2,330 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-25 | LINK | 7d | $10.17 | $13.12 | $9.86 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | |
| 2026-10-25 | LINK | 24h | $11.17 | $12.11 | $11.04 | $11.46 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-25 | LINK | 3d | $10.74 | $12.54 | $10.50 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-25 | SOL | 7d | $86.48 | $117 | $83.03 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | |
| 2026-10-25 | SOL | 24h | $97.97 | $107 | $97.27 | $101 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-25 | SOL | 3d | $93.25 | $111 | $89.68 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-25 | TRX | 24h | $0.3248 | $0.3335 | $0.3197 | $0.3304 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-25 | TRX | 7d | $0.3149 | $0.3416 | $0.3067 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | |
| 2026-10-25 | TRX | 3d | $0.3206 | $0.3364 | $0.3146 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-25 | XRP | 3d | $1.20 | $1.41 | $1.19 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-25 | XRP | 7d | $1.16 | $1.47 | $1.13 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | |
| 2026-10-25 | XRP | 24h | $1.25 | $1.35 | $1.24 | $1.30 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
Event probabilities (480)filtered view · clear
1440 / 1440
rows / distinct keys consistent
60
event groups (asset × horizon × date; correlated)
0.075
Informative Brier · 10–90% (n=82)
0.026
All-event Brier (n=240) · max 100.0%
| Date | Observation | Model | 180d base rate | Lift (pp) | Informative (10–90%) | Outcome | Payload hash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | SOL · close within ±8% · 7d | 70.7% | 71.9% | -1.2 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | a994f0e036 |
| 2026-10-25 | AVAX · close increase ≤5% · 7d | 81.0% | 84.4% | -3.3 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | b75bdd48e1 |
| 2026-10-25 | BTC · close decline ≤2% · 7d | 64.9% | 71.9% | -7.0 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | e35963aca4 |
| 2026-10-25 | LINK · close within ±10% · 7d | 78.5% | 71.9% | 6.6 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | fc89a1bf4c |
| 2026-10-25 | ADA · close decline ≤10% · 7d | 82.0% | 84.4% | -2.3 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | 6e6dfb0d06 |
| 2026-10-25 | AVAX · close increase ≤3% · 7d | 74.6% | 81.3% | -6.7 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | 7a736cb656 |
| 2026-10-25 | DOGE · close decline ≤8% · 7d | 82.7% | 75.0% | 7.7 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | 4dd0e87b7a |
| 2026-10-25 | BNB · close decline ≤3% · 7d | 72.6% | 62.5% | 10.1 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | 4ae389cb64 |
| 2026-10-25 | ADA · close increase ≤5% · 7d | 78.2% | 81.3% | -3.0 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | 5873cc5410 |
| 2026-10-25 | AVAX · close decline ≤8% · 7d | 81.5% | 75.0% | 6.5 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | cb3835e4cf |
| 2026-10-25 | LINK · close increase ≤3% · 7d | 68.6% | 75.0% | -6.4 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | 36300574a7 |
| 2026-10-25 | XRP · close beyond ±3% · 7d | 63.3% | 56.3% | 7.0 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | 914101134b |
| 2026-10-25 | ADA · close decline ≤5% · 7d | 63.6% | 56.3% | 7.4 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | 25b9123285 |
| 2026-10-25 | BNB · close decline ≤2% · 7d | 66.0% | 59.4% | 6.7 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | 82bb88cd8b |
| 2026-10-25 | ADA · close increase ≤2% · 7d | 68.4% | 71.9% | -3.5 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | db10d13a82 |
| 2026-10-25 | ADA · close increase ≤3% · 7d | 72.1% | 75.0% | -2.9 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | a046ad7648 |
| 2026-10-25 | SOL · close decline ≤5% · 7d | 73.4% | 68.8% | 4.6 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | d5a215b231 |
| 2026-10-25 | BTC · close beyond ±2% · 7d | 65.7% | 50.0% | 15.7 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | 3fc79b93d3 |
| 2026-10-25 | LINK · close within ±8% · 7d | 69.3% | 62.5% | 6.8 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | c98e44dced |
| 2026-10-25 | LINK · close beyond ±2% · 7d | 79.4% | 81.3% | -1.9 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | c7b29b2417 |
| 2026-10-25 | DOGE · close decline ≤5% · 7d | 68.4% | 53.1% | 15.3 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | 40ae9afb94 |
| 2026-10-25 | LINK · close decline ≤5% · 7d | 73.0% | 62.5% | 10.5 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | 0b38414da2 |
| 2026-10-25 | XRP · close within ±10% · 7d | 82.0% | 90.6% | -8.7 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | ab437d904f |
| 2026-10-25 | ETH · close decline ≤3% · 7d | 67.7% | 62.5% | 5.2 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | 819616dc69 |
| 2026-10-25 | SOL · close beyond ±2% · 7d | 75.4% | 56.3% | 19.1 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | 38804dfad3 |
| 2026-10-25 | DOGE · close within ±10% · 7d | 80.9% | 81.3% | -0.3 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | a71c45ee1c |
| 2026-10-25 | DOGE · close beyond ±2% · 7d | 77.5% | 78.1% | -0.6 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | 2f31ef1fca |
| 2026-10-25 | XRP · close within ±8% · 7d | 74.0% | 84.4% | -10.4 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | 94f16d1423 |
| 2026-10-25 | LINK · close increase ≤2% · 7d | 64.2% | 75.0% | -10.8 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | 848379efc7 |
| 2026-10-25 | AVAX · close within ±10% · 7d | 77.2% | 84.4% | -7.2 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | 1f385e3249 |
| 2026-10-25 | ADA · close within ±10% · 7d | 70.4% | 75.0% | -4.6 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | 79137c0dd0 |
| 2026-10-25 | BNB · close beyond ±2% · 7d | 64.9% | 62.5% | 2.4 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | 1fd61182b5 |
| 2026-10-25 | BNB · close increase ≤2% · 7d | 69.0% | 75.0% | -6.0 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | 7d632db000 |
| 2026-10-25 | TRX · close increase ≤2% · 7d | 72.6% | 96.9% | -24.3 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | 9b4ceeea8f |
| 2026-10-25 | LINK · close beyond ±3% · 7d | 68.9% | 81.3% | -12.4 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | 4d01aac0ee |
| 2026-10-25 | AVAX · close beyond ±2% · 7d | 75.6% | 75.0% | 0.6 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | 2751efe6d6 |
| 2026-10-25 | ETH · close within ±8% · 7d | 75.2% | 90.6% | -15.4 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | 6aa29bb1cf |
| 2026-10-25 | DOGE · close beyond ±3% · 7d | 66.8% | 65.6% | 1.2 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | 5176f578a4 |
| 2026-10-25 | AVAX · close decline ≤5% · 7d | 70.0% | 59.4% | 10.7 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | 4ceedcf8e5 |
| 2026-10-25 | ETH · close beyond ±3% · 7d | 59.2% | 40.6% | 18.5 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | 0728c559a3 |
| 2026-10-25 | AVAX · close beyond ±3% · 7d | 65.6% | 71.9% | -6.3 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | f538925ce0 |
| 2026-10-25 | AVAX · close within ±8% · 7d | 68.9% | 71.9% | -3.0 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | 173f9f854e |
| 2026-10-25 | SOL · close beyond ±3% · 7d | 64.8% | 46.9% | 17.9 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | beaaf74132 |
| 2026-10-25 | ETH · close increase ≤2% · 7d | 67.7% | 87.5% | -19.8 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | 0ec90e6c3f |
| 2026-10-25 | SOL · close increase ≤2% · 7d | 67.2% | 81.3% | -14.1 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | bb71e8f9a0 |
| 2026-10-25 | TRX · close within ±3% · 7d | 69.3% | 96.9% | -27.6 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | 779b42f572 |
| 2026-10-25 | AVAX · close beyond ±5% · 7d | 48.9% | 53.1% | -4.2 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | 4c91359346 |
| 2026-10-25 | XRP · close within ±5% · 7d | 55.2% | 50.0% | 5.2 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | 4c22996f6d |
| 2026-10-25 | XRP · close within ±3% · 7d | 36.7% | 43.8% | -7.0 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | bcc9d6d329 |
| 2026-10-25 | XRP · close within ±2% · 7d | 25.5% | 25.0% | 0.5 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | 80e072f637 |