Observation ledger
Every estimate, regardless of outcome. Original records cannot be modified or deleted. Payload verification compares the record with its stored digest; no independent external timestamp is provided.
Daily manifests cover records from activation. Legacy records were not chained. No independent external timestamp exists; integrity verification does not establish model accuracy.
Price-level ledger
Persisted bounds and reference stops are evaluated against the target daily close. C+cap targets 85% before capping; final implied probabilities are recorded per observation. Legacy base-policy records use a separate 90% target. Stop events measure closing prices, not intraday execution.
100%
inside
0.0%
close below stop
10
resolved
| Issued UTC | Asset | Horizon | Lower bound | Upper bound | Stop | Close | Outcome | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-26 | ADA | 24h | $0.1934 | $0.2156 | $0.1885 | — | open until 2026-10-26 | |
| 2026-10-26 | ADA | 3d | $0.1842 | $0.2242 | $0.1771 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | |
| 2026-10-26 | ADA | 7d | $0.1730 | $0.2318 | $0.1608 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | |
| 2026-10-26 | AVAX | 3d | $8.13 | $9.72 | $8.16 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | |
| 2026-10-26 | AVAX | 24h | $8.48 | $9.38 | $8.35 | — | open until 2026-10-26 | |
| 2026-10-26 | AVAX | 7d | $7.75 | $10.00 | $7.58 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | |
| 2026-10-26 | BNB | 24h | $717 | $759 | $707 | — | open until 2026-10-26 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 82.9% |
| 2026-10-26 | BNB | 3d | $699 | $771 | $667 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 81.8% |
| 2026-10-26 | BNB | 7d | $676 | $787 | $591 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 83.2% |
| 2026-10-26 | BTC | 24h | $77,715 | $82,536 | $77,089 | — | open until 2026-10-26 | |
| 2026-10-26 | BTC | 3d | $75,781 | $84,140 | $74,563 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.5% |
| 2026-10-26 | BTC | 7d | $73,437 | $86,206 | $68,605 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.5% |
| 2026-10-26 | DOGE | 24h | $0.0734 | $0.0805 | $0.0729 | — | open until 2026-10-26 | |
| 2026-10-26 | DOGE | 7d | $0.0680 | $0.0850 | $0.0677 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | |
| 2026-10-26 | DOGE | 3d | $0.0708 | $0.0828 | $0.0703 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | |
| 2026-10-26 | ETH | 7d | $2,060 | $2,565 | $1,870 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | |
| 2026-10-26 | ETH | 3d | $2,153 | $2,492 | $2,060 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.3% |
| 2026-10-26 | ETH | 24h | $2,230 | $2,424 | $2,227 | — | open until 2026-10-26 | |
| 2026-10-26 | LINK | 7d | $10.09 | $12.83 | $9.75 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | |
| 2026-10-26 | LINK | 24h | $10.92 | $12.01 | $10.92 | — | open until 2026-10-26 | |
| 2026-10-26 | LINK | 3d | $10.54 | $12.38 | $10.40 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | |
| 2026-10-26 | SOL | 7d | $88.96 | $113 | $83.80 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.3% |
| 2026-10-26 | SOL | 24h | $96.86 | $106 | $96.07 | — | open until 2026-10-26 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.4% |
| 2026-10-26 | SOL | 3d | $93.12 | $109 | $91.60 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.1% |
| 2026-10-26 | TRX | 24h | $0.3265 | $0.3342 | $0.3246 | — | open until 2026-10-26 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 74.2% |
| 2026-10-26 | TRX | 7d | $0.3198 | $0.3400 | $0.3115 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 69.8% |
| 2026-10-26 | TRX | 3d | $0.3234 | $0.3366 | $0.3203 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 73.2% |
| 2026-10-26 | XRP | 24h | $1.24 | $1.35 | $1.24 | — | open until 2026-10-26 | |
| 2026-10-26 | XRP | 7d | $1.16 | $1.44 | $1.13 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | |
| 2026-10-26 | XRP | 3d | $1.20 | $1.39 | $1.19 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | |
| 2026-10-25 | ADA | 3d | $0.1871 | $0.2305 | $0.1805 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-25 | ADA | 24h | $0.1975 | $0.2202 | $0.1956 | $0.2042 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-25 | ADA | 7d | $0.1694 | $0.2452 | $0.1586 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | |
| 2026-10-25 | AVAX | 7d | $7.78 | $10.20 | $7.50 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | |
| 2026-10-25 | AVAX | 24h | $8.60 | $9.40 | $8.46 | $8.93 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-25 | AVAX | 3d | $8.25 | $9.78 | $8.05 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-25 | BNB | 24h | $720 | $759 | $711 | $739 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-25 | BNB | 3d | $700 | $772 | $656 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-25 | BNB | 7d | $669 | $793 | $601 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | |
| 2026-10-25 | BTC | 24h | $78,056 | $83,702 | $77,563 | $80,154 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-25 | BTC | 7d | $71,210 | $89,705 | $68,588 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | |
| 2026-10-25 | BTC | 3d | $75,402 | $85,996 | $73,923 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-25 | DOGE | 7d | $0.0688 | $0.0866 | $0.0686 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | |
| 2026-10-25 | DOGE | 3d | $0.0720 | $0.0836 | $0.0714 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-25 | DOGE | 24h | $0.0745 | $0.0809 | $0.0734 | $0.0769 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-25 | ETH | 7d | $2,089 | $2,598 | $1,909 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | |
| 2026-10-25 | ETH | 3d | $2,179 | $2,528 | $2,107 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-25 | ETH | 24h | $2,268 | $2,446 | $2,210 | $2,330 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-25 | LINK | 7d | $10.17 | $13.12 | $9.86 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | |
| 2026-10-25 | LINK | 24h | $11.17 | $12.11 | $11.04 | $11.46 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-25 | LINK | 3d | $10.74 | $12.54 | $10.50 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-25 | SOL | 7d | $86.48 | $117 | $83.03 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | |
| 2026-10-25 | SOL | 24h | $97.97 | $107 | $97.27 | $101 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-25 | SOL | 3d | $93.25 | $111 | $89.68 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-25 | TRX | 24h | $0.3248 | $0.3335 | $0.3197 | $0.3304 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-25 | TRX | 7d | $0.3149 | $0.3416 | $0.3067 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | |
| 2026-10-25 | TRX | 3d | $0.3206 | $0.3364 | $0.3146 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-25 | XRP | 3d | $1.20 | $1.41 | $1.19 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-25 | XRP | 7d | $1.16 | $1.47 | $1.13 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | |
| 2026-10-25 | XRP | 24h | $1.25 | $1.35 | $1.24 | $1.30 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
Event probabilities (240)filtered view · clear
1440 / 1440
rows / distinct keys consistent
60
event groups (asset × horizon × date; correlated)
0.075
Informative Brier · 10–90% (n=82)
0.026
All-event Brier (n=240) · max 100.0%
| Date | Observation | Model | 180d base rate | Lift (pp) | Informative (10–90%) | Outcome | Payload hash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | XRP · close within ±8% · 24h | 97.1% | 96.9% | 0.2 | — | occurred | e870b2e431 |
| 2026-10-25 | DOGE · close increase ≤8% · 24h | 97.8% | 96.9% | 0.9 | — | occurred | d53274b980 |
| 2026-10-25 | XRP · close increase ≤5% · 24h | 94.1% | 96.9% | -2.8 | — | occurred | 1322bc7e60 |
| 2026-10-25 | SOL · close increase ≤5% · 24h | 94.0% | 96.9% | -2.9 | — | occurred | f10f461a1e |
| 2026-10-25 | ADA · close increase ≤5% · 24h | 91.0% | 93.8% | -2.7 | — | occurred | 72491612f6 |
| 2026-10-25 | BTC · close within ±5% · 24h | 95.9% | 96.9% | -1.0 | — | occurred | 416383a167 |
| 2026-10-25 | BNB · close within ±5% · 24h | 95.9% | 96.9% | -1.0 | — | occurred | bf292bd9a1 |
| 2026-10-25 | XRP · close decline ≤5% · 24h | 95.2% | 93.8% | 1.5 | — | occurred | 4a7c0a4d12 |
| 2026-10-25 | SOL · close decline ≤5% · 24h | 94.0% | 90.6% | 3.3 | — | occurred | 6b65a15250 |
| 2026-10-25 | TRX · close within ±3% · 24h | 97.8% | 96.9% | 0.9 | — | occurred | 3155afc9fa |
| 2026-10-25 | TRX · close within ±2% · 24h | 91.4% | 96.9% | -5.4 | — | occurred | 1fae14de5c |
| 2026-10-25 | BTC · close increase ≤5% · 24h | 97.9% | 96.9% | 1.0 | — | occurred | 93d33de614 |
| 2026-10-25 | ETH · close increase ≤5% · 24h | 95.0% | 96.9% | -1.9 | — | occurred | 46070babe2 |
| 2026-10-25 | LINK · close decline ≤5% · 24h | 93.8% | 90.6% | 3.1 | — | occurred | ebf3cb1fd6 |
| 2026-10-25 | DOGE · close increase ≤5% · 24h | 93.5% | 96.9% | -3.3 | — | occurred | 37afe820b2 |
| 2026-10-25 | BTC · close increase ≤2% · 24h | 86.3% | 93.8% | -7.5 | yes | occurred | fb9ca8c987 |
| 2026-10-25 | BNB · close increase ≤3% · 24h | 93.0% | 96.9% | -3.8 | — | occurred | ca07f3f7ec |
| 2026-10-25 | selectedETH · close within ±5% · 24h | 89.5% | 96.9% | -7.4 | yes | occurred | 83bf815883 |
| 2026-10-25 | LINK · close within ±5% · 24h | 86.9% | 84.4% | 2.5 | yes | occurred | 033d326681 |
| 2026-10-25 | SOL · close increase ≤3% · 24h | 86.2% | 93.8% | -7.5 | yes | occurred | b8044a71bd |
| 2026-10-25 | LINK · close within ±8% · 24h | 97.0% | 93.8% | 3.2 | — | occurred | a80cb85e1f |
| 2026-10-25 | LINK · close increase ≤5% · 24h | 93.1% | 90.6% | 2.5 | — | occurred | 6a13bf1093 |
| 2026-10-25 | AVAX · close increase ≤5% · 24h | 92.4% | 90.6% | 1.8 | — | occurred | dfcd094dfa |
| 2026-10-25 | AVAX · close decline ≤3% · 24h | 82.2% | 81.3% | 0.9 | yes | occurred | 3e054f2929 |
| 2026-10-25 | BTC · close increase ≤3% · 24h | 92.6% | 96.9% | -4.2 | — | occurred | bd941943e3 |
| 2026-10-25 | AVAX · close decline ≤5% · 24h | 92.5% | 87.5% | 4.9 | — | occurred | 209aa98eed |
| 2026-10-25 | ETH · close increase ≤3% · 24h | 88.4% | 96.9% | -8.5 | yes | occurred | 994aedf208 |
| 2026-10-25 | BTC · close within ±3% · 24h | 84.9% | 93.8% | -8.8 | yes | occurred | a6015fc92c |
| 2026-10-25 | LINK · close increase ≤3% · 24h | 84.2% | 90.6% | -6.5 | yes | occurred | 7110d1d7d5 |
| 2026-10-25 | BNB · close increase ≤2% · 24h | 86.7% | 93.8% | -7.1 | yes | occurred | b0b19edb4c |
| 2026-10-25 | ADA · close within ±5% · 24h | 82.5% | 84.4% | -1.8 | yes | occurred | e53586da06 |
| 2026-10-25 | XRP · close within ±5% · 24h | 89.3% | 93.8% | -4.4 | yes | occurred | 496e161ff7 |
| 2026-10-25 | BTC · close decline ≤2% · 24h | 85.1% | 87.5% | -2.4 | yes | occurred | 42575c8fb4 |
| 2026-10-25 | ETH · close increase ≤2% · 24h | 82.0% | 93.8% | -11.8 | yes | occurred | ff53d71e6c |
| 2026-10-25 | XRP · close increase ≤3% · 24h | 87.4% | 96.9% | -9.5 | yes | occurred | ee6b39ca87 |
| 2026-10-25 | DOGE · close decline ≤3% · 24h | 84.1% | 81.3% | 2.9 | yes | occurred | 8a18ab125b |
| 2026-10-25 | DOGE · close increase ≤3% · 24h | 86.7% | 90.6% | -3.9 | yes | occurred | f04c4cfdf5 |
| 2026-10-25 | BNB · close decline ≤3% · 24h | 91.5% | 93.8% | -2.3 | — | occurred | c09b9aa217 |
| 2026-10-25 | AVAX · close increase ≤2% · 24h | 77.7% | 78.1% | -0.4 | yes | occurred | 7c64879832 |
| 2026-10-25 | XRP · close decline ≤3% · 24h | 86.4% | 87.5% | -1.1 | yes | occurred | e45c63ce67 |
| 2026-10-25 | DOGE · close increase ≤2% · 24h | 80.7% | 84.4% | -3.7 | yes | occurred | 498f1f27f5 |
| 2026-10-25 | DOGE · close decline ≤5% · 24h | 93.8% | 90.6% | 3.2 | — | occurred | 5133a8a5d5 |
| 2026-10-25 | AVAX · close increase ≤3% · 24h | 84.4% | 81.3% | 3.2 | yes | occurred | a6e9d1ea8e |
| 2026-10-25 | SOL · close within ±5% · 24h | 87.9% | 90.6% | -2.7 | yes | occurred | a9997e0e8c |
| 2026-10-25 | ETH · close decline ≤3% · 24h | 86.7% | 81.3% | 5.4 | yes | occurred | fa33733f17 |
| 2026-10-25 | BNB · close within ±3% · 24h | 84.5% | 93.8% | -9.2 | yes | occurred | 946a086a5e |
| 2026-10-25 | SOL · close decline ≤3% · 24h | 84.3% | 84.4% | -0.1 | yes | occurred | e341a25a77 |
| 2026-10-25 | XRP · close decline ≤2% · 24h | 77.5% | 78.1% | -0.7 | yes | occurred | 8c81251bad |
| 2026-10-25 | ADA · close decline ≤3% · 24h | 79.5% | 81.3% | -1.8 | yes | occurred | 3eabee23d2 |
| 2026-10-25 | BNB · close decline ≤2% · 24h | 83.9% | 87.5% | -3.6 | yes | occurred | 9be3c0369b |