Observation ledger
Every estimate, regardless of outcome. Original records cannot be modified or deleted. Payload verification compares the record with its stored digest; no independent external timestamp is provided.
Daily manifests cover records from activation. Legacy records were not chained. No independent external timestamp exists; integrity verification does not establish model accuracy.
Price-level ledger
Persisted bounds and reference stops are evaluated against the target daily close. C+cap targets 85% before capping; final implied probabilities are recorded per observation. Legacy base-policy records use a separate 90% target. Stop events measure closing prices, not intraday execution.
100%
inside
0.0%
close below stop
10
resolved
| Issued UTC | Asset | Horizon | Lower bound | Upper bound | Stop | Close | Outcome | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-26 | ADA | 24h | $0.1934 | $0.2156 | $0.1885 | — | open until 2026-10-26 | |
| 2026-10-26 | ADA | 3d | $0.1842 | $0.2242 | $0.1771 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | |
| 2026-10-26 | ADA | 7d | $0.1730 | $0.2318 | $0.1608 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | |
| 2026-10-26 | AVAX | 3d | $8.13 | $9.72 | $8.16 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | |
| 2026-10-26 | AVAX | 24h | $8.48 | $9.38 | $8.35 | — | open until 2026-10-26 | |
| 2026-10-26 | AVAX | 7d | $7.75 | $10.00 | $7.58 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | |
| 2026-10-26 | BNB | 24h | $717 | $759 | $707 | — | open until 2026-10-26 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 82.9% |
| 2026-10-26 | BNB | 3d | $699 | $771 | $667 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 81.8% |
| 2026-10-26 | BNB | 7d | $676 | $787 | $591 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 83.2% |
| 2026-10-26 | BTC | 24h | $77,715 | $82,536 | $77,089 | — | open until 2026-10-26 | |
| 2026-10-26 | BTC | 3d | $75,781 | $84,140 | $74,563 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.5% |
| 2026-10-26 | BTC | 7d | $73,437 | $86,206 | $68,605 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.5% |
| 2026-10-26 | DOGE | 24h | $0.0734 | $0.0805 | $0.0729 | — | open until 2026-10-26 | |
| 2026-10-26 | DOGE | 7d | $0.0680 | $0.0850 | $0.0677 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | |
| 2026-10-26 | DOGE | 3d | $0.0708 | $0.0828 | $0.0703 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | |
| 2026-10-26 | ETH | 7d | $2,060 | $2,565 | $1,870 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | |
| 2026-10-26 | ETH | 3d | $2,153 | $2,492 | $2,060 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.3% |
| 2026-10-26 | ETH | 24h | $2,230 | $2,424 | $2,227 | — | open until 2026-10-26 | |
| 2026-10-26 | LINK | 7d | $10.09 | $12.83 | $9.75 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | |
| 2026-10-26 | LINK | 24h | $10.92 | $12.01 | $10.92 | — | open until 2026-10-26 | |
| 2026-10-26 | LINK | 3d | $10.54 | $12.38 | $10.40 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | |
| 2026-10-26 | SOL | 7d | $88.96 | $113 | $83.80 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.3% |
| 2026-10-26 | SOL | 24h | $96.86 | $106 | $96.07 | — | open until 2026-10-26 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.4% |
| 2026-10-26 | SOL | 3d | $93.12 | $109 | $91.60 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.1% |
| 2026-10-26 | TRX | 24h | $0.3265 | $0.3342 | $0.3246 | — | open until 2026-10-26 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 74.2% |
| 2026-10-26 | TRX | 7d | $0.3198 | $0.3400 | $0.3115 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 69.8% |
| 2026-10-26 | TRX | 3d | $0.3234 | $0.3366 | $0.3203 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 73.2% |
| 2026-10-26 | XRP | 24h | $1.24 | $1.35 | $1.24 | — | open until 2026-10-26 | |
| 2026-10-26 | XRP | 7d | $1.16 | $1.44 | $1.13 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | |
| 2026-10-26 | XRP | 3d | $1.20 | $1.39 | $1.19 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | |
| 2026-10-25 | ADA | 3d | $0.1871 | $0.2305 | $0.1805 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-25 | ADA | 24h | $0.1975 | $0.2202 | $0.1956 | $0.2042 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-25 | ADA | 7d | $0.1694 | $0.2452 | $0.1586 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | |
| 2026-10-25 | AVAX | 7d | $7.78 | $10.20 | $7.50 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | |
| 2026-10-25 | AVAX | 24h | $8.60 | $9.40 | $8.46 | $8.93 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-25 | AVAX | 3d | $8.25 | $9.78 | $8.05 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-25 | BNB | 24h | $720 | $759 | $711 | $739 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-25 | BNB | 3d | $700 | $772 | $656 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-25 | BNB | 7d | $669 | $793 | $601 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | |
| 2026-10-25 | BTC | 24h | $78,056 | $83,702 | $77,563 | $80,154 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-25 | BTC | 7d | $71,210 | $89,705 | $68,588 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | |
| 2026-10-25 | BTC | 3d | $75,402 | $85,996 | $73,923 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-25 | DOGE | 7d | $0.0688 | $0.0866 | $0.0686 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | |
| 2026-10-25 | DOGE | 3d | $0.0720 | $0.0836 | $0.0714 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-25 | DOGE | 24h | $0.0745 | $0.0809 | $0.0734 | $0.0769 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-25 | ETH | 7d | $2,089 | $2,598 | $1,909 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | |
| 2026-10-25 | ETH | 3d | $2,179 | $2,528 | $2,107 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-25 | ETH | 24h | $2,268 | $2,446 | $2,210 | $2,330 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-25 | LINK | 7d | $10.17 | $13.12 | $9.86 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | |
| 2026-10-25 | LINK | 24h | $11.17 | $12.11 | $11.04 | $11.46 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-25 | LINK | 3d | $10.74 | $12.54 | $10.50 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-25 | SOL | 7d | $86.48 | $117 | $83.03 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | |
| 2026-10-25 | SOL | 24h | $97.97 | $107 | $97.27 | $101 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-25 | SOL | 3d | $93.25 | $111 | $89.68 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-25 | TRX | 24h | $0.3248 | $0.3335 | $0.3197 | $0.3304 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-25 | TRX | 7d | $0.3149 | $0.3416 | $0.3067 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | |
| 2026-10-25 | TRX | 3d | $0.3206 | $0.3364 | $0.3146 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-25 | XRP | 3d | $1.20 | $1.41 | $1.19 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-25 | XRP | 7d | $1.16 | $1.47 | $1.13 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | |
| 2026-10-25 | XRP | 24h | $1.25 | $1.35 | $1.24 | $1.30 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
Event probabilities (1440)
1440 / 1440
rows / distinct keys consistent
60
event groups (asset × horizon × date; correlated)
0.075
Informative Brier · 10–90% (n=82)
0.026
All-event Brier (n=240) · max 100.0%
| Date | Observation | Model | 180d base rate | Lift (pp) | Informative (10–90%) | Outcome | Payload hash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-26 | BTC · close decline ≤3% · 24h | 92.3% | 96.2% | -3.9 | — | open until 2026-10-26 | 8a157ea834 |
| 2026-10-26 | DOGE · close increase ≤8% · 7d | 89.4% | 85.2% | 4.2 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 11ded9d278 |
| 2026-10-26 | SOL · close increase ≤8% · 3d | 93.7% | 91.8% | 1.9 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | 0aaef67eac |
| 2026-10-26 | XRP · close within ±10% · 3d | 92.6% | 95.6% | -3.0 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | 1ceec5c76a |
| 2026-10-26 | BTC · close decline ≤5% · 3d | 90.6% | 95.6% | -5.0 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | faa3c9a7eb |
| 2026-10-26 | ADA · close increase ≤8% · 3d | 89.5% | 86.8% | 2.7 | yes | open until 2026-10-28 | 3accd39511 |
| 2026-10-26 | SOL · close within ±10% · 3d | 91.6% | 92.3% | -0.7 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | 43d07a81fd |
| 2026-10-26 | XRP · close within ±8% · 3d | 87.6% | 88.5% | -0.9 | yes | open until 2026-10-28 | 2af8c3537e |
| 2026-10-26 | SOL · close increase ≤10% · 7d | 90.5% | 83.5% | 7.0 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | 87d739c169 |
| 2026-10-26 | BNB · close decline ≤5% · 3d | 89.8% | 95.0% | -5.3 | yes | open until 2026-10-28 | d2684babb5 |
| 2026-10-26 | ADA · close increase ≤15% · 7d | 93.7% | 87.9% | 5.8 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | 02d7cbcf8c |
| 2026-10-26 | TRX · close within ±5% · 3d | 97.8% | 96.7% | 1.1 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | 5488bef45f |
| 2026-10-26 | XRP · close within ±15% · 7d | 92.6% | 92.9% | -0.2 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | 284379cf4b |
| 2026-10-26 | XRP · close decline ≤10% · 7d | 90.9% | 96.2% | -5.3 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | 729d4a398d |
| 2026-10-26 | ADA · close within ±8% · 24h | 94.6% | 95.0% | -0.5 | — | open until 2026-10-26 | 61ea234923 |
| 2026-10-26 | LINK · close increase ≤10% · 7d | 89.4% | 81.9% | 7.5 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | a2c0143ca0 |
| 2026-10-26 | XRP · close increase ≤10% · 7d | 91.2% | 91.8% | -0.5 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | fa847876e5 |
| 2026-10-26 | LINK · close within ±8% · 24h | 97.0% | 96.7% | 0.3 | — | open until 2026-10-26 | f1bd6c61ec |
| 2026-10-26 | SOL · close decline ≤10% · 7d | 88.4% | 91.2% | -2.8 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | f037921856 |
| 2026-10-26 | ETH · close within ±8% · 24h | 97.1% | 97.8% | -0.7 | — | open until 2026-10-26 | b0b17a2396 |
| 2026-10-26 | AVAX · close decline ≤15% · 7d | 94.7% | 96.2% | -1.5 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | 4a37ed6671 |
| 2026-10-26 | ETH · close within ±10% · 3d | 92.3% | 95.0% | -2.8 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | 681861c0e5 |
| 2026-10-26 | ETH · close decline ≤5% · 24h | 94.6% | 98.4% | -3.8 | — | open until 2026-10-26 | 398c4e0a1d |
| 2026-10-26 | BTC · close decline ≤8% · 7d | 91.5% | 95.6% | -4.1 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | c3e8270f95 |
| 2026-10-26 | AVAX · close increase ≤10% · 7d | 90.3% | 89.0% | 1.3 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | 81d09f8e71 |
| 2026-10-26 | SOL · close increase ≤5% · 24h | 94.0% | 93.4% | 0.6 | — | open until 2026-10-26 | 54e587a9f7 |
| 2026-10-26 | AVAX · close decline ≤10% · 3d | 94.5% | 95.6% | -1.1 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | 8553bb0fd1 |
| 2026-10-26 | BTC · close increase ≤3% · 24h | 92.6% | 94.5% | -1.9 | — | open until 2026-10-26 | b56b486c99 |
| 2026-10-26 | ADA · close within ±15% · 7d | 85.8% | 83.0% | 2.9 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 4663945150 |
| 2026-10-26 | SOL · close within ±8% · 24h | 97.0% | 97.8% | -0.8 | — | open until 2026-10-26 | 9b9f3d2972 |
| 2026-10-26 | SOL · close decline ≤5% · 24h | 94.0% | 96.7% | -2.7 | — | open until 2026-10-26 | 6405b30a3b |
| 2026-10-26 | ETH · close increase ≤5% · 3d | 86.9% | 89.6% | -2.6 | yes | open until 2026-10-28 | e0a4259f86 |
| 2026-10-26 | ETH · close increase ≤8% · 3d | 94.0% | 95.0% | -1.1 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | 985521490c |
| 2026-10-26 | TRX · close decline ≤3% · 3d | 93.2% | 94.0% | -0.8 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | ad278e9904 |
| 2026-10-26 | XRP · close increase ≤5% · 3d | 87.5% | 89.0% | -1.5 | yes | open until 2026-10-28 | b20c47530b |
| 2026-10-26 | BTC · close increase ≤5% · 7d | 85.3% | 86.3% | -1.0 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | ce05445c5b |
| 2026-10-26 | DOGE · close within ±15% · 7d | 92.9% | 92.9% | 0.0 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | 9f46c89cb6 |
| 2026-10-26 | DOGE · close within ±8% · 24h | 96.3% | 97.3% | -0.9 | — | open until 2026-10-26 | 53b2bf2622 |
| 2026-10-26 | BNB · close increase ≤8% · 7d | 94.8% | 91.8% | 3.1 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | 343034b23c |
| 2026-10-26 | AVAX · close within ±8% · 24h | 95.5% | 96.2% | -0.7 | — | open until 2026-10-26 | 930415cd2d |
| 2026-10-26 | BTC · close increase ≤5% · 3d | 92.3% | 92.9% | -0.5 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | 7376aeb484 |
| 2026-10-26 | XRP · close decline ≤5% · 24h | 95.2% | 97.3% | -2.0 | — | open until 2026-10-26 | fb171dd31e |
| 2026-10-26 | TRX · close increase ≤2% · 24h | 96.2% | 98.9% | -2.7 | — | open until 2026-10-26 | 6bb2c524e8 |
| 2026-10-26 | TRX · close increase ≤3% · 3d | 95.4% | 95.6% | -0.2 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | cdb453dada |
| 2026-10-26 | TRX · close increase ≤5% · 7d | 96.0% | 95.0% | 1.0 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | a66986902c |
| 2026-10-26 | SOL · close increase ≤5% · 3d | 85.3% | 83.5% | 1.8 | yes | open until 2026-10-28 | b9275925c8 |
| 2026-10-26 | LINK · close increase ≤8% · 3d | 92.4% | 89.6% | 2.8 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | 73a697edeb |
| 2026-10-26 | LINK · close within ±10% · 3d | 91.6% | 91.2% | 0.4 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | 69cb2642d4 |
| 2026-10-26 | AVAX · close decline ≤5% · 24h | 92.5% | 94.0% | -1.5 | — | open until 2026-10-26 | 6051bb1337 |
| 2026-10-26 | DOGE · close decline ≤5% · 24h | 93.8% | 96.2% | -2.3 | — | open until 2026-10-26 | 2549ee134c |