What is the recorded BTC 24h price corridor?
The BTC 24h corridor issued on 2026-10-27 spans $77,708 to $82,517 for the closing price at 2026-10-28 00:00 UTC. Its recorded model-implied probability is 85.0%. These locked bounds are daily-close estimates, not intraday limits or verified accuracy.
| Asset | Horizon | Lower bound | Upper bound | Implied probability | Reference stop |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | 24h | $77,708 | $82,517 | 85.0% | $76,835 |
Corridor
Lower bound$77,708
Upper bound$82,517
Declared P85.0%
Reference stop$76,835
Statusopen (target close 2026-10-28 00:00 UTC)
Tail probability (24h)
P(down > 5%)2.0% (base: 1.1%)
P(up > 5%)2.1% (base: 3.8%)
P(down > 10%)0.5% (base: 0.5%)
P(up > 10%)0.5% (base: 0.5%)
Baseline
180d base rate91.2% (within ±3%)
Model P85.0% (within ±3%)
Divergence−6.2 pp (more cautious)
Regime
Current regimelow-vol
Interpretationmodel is conservative here
Mathematical estimates, not financial advice.
Two-sided Weibull · Append-only research ledger