What is the recorded BTC 7d price corridor?
The BTC 7d corridor issued on 2026-10-27 spans $73,422 to $86,191 for the closing price at 2026-11-03 00:00 UTC. Its recorded model-implied probability is 84.6%. These locked bounds are daily-close estimates, not intraday limits or verified accuracy.
| Asset | Horizon | Lower bound | Upper bound | Implied probability | Reference stop |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | 7d | $73,422 | $86,191 | 84.6% | $68,005 |
Corridor
Lower bound$73,422
Upper bound$86,191
Declared P84.6%
Reference stop$68,005
Statusopen (target close 2026-11-03 00:00 UTC)
Tail probability (7d)
P(down > 5%)17.7% (base: 11.5%)
P(up > 5%)14.6% (base: 13.7%)
P(down > 10%)5.1% (base: 4.4%)
P(up > 10%)4.1% (base: 6.6%)
Baseline
180d base rate53.8% (within ±3%)
Model P48.0% (within ±3%)
Divergence−5.9 pp (more cautious)
Regime
Current regimelow-vol
Interpretationmodel is conservative here
Mathematical estimates, not financial advice.
Two-sided Weibull · Append-only research ledger