What is the recorded BTC 3d price corridor?
The BTC 3d corridor issued on 2026-10-27 spans $75,768 to $84,128 for the closing price at 2026-10-30 00:00 UTC. Its recorded model-implied probability is 84.6%. These locked bounds are daily-close estimates, not intraday limits or verified accuracy.
| Asset | Horizon | Lower bound | Upper bound | Implied probability | Reference stop |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | 3d | $75,768 | $84,128 | 84.6% | $73,269 |
Corridor
Lower bound$75,768
Upper bound$84,128
Declared P84.6%
Reference stop$73,269
Statusopen (target close 2026-10-30 00:00 UTC)
Tail probability (3d)
P(down > 5%)9.4% (base: 4.4%)
P(up > 5%)7.6% (base: 7.1%)
P(down > 10%)1.0% (base: 1.6%)
P(up > 10%)1.0% (base: 2.7%)
Baseline
180d base rate75.3% (within ±3%)
Model P63.0% (within ±3%)
Divergence−12.3 pp (more cautious)
Regime
Current regimelow-vol
Interpretationmodel is conservative here
Mathematical estimates, not financial advice.
Two-sided Weibull · Append-only research ledger