What is the recorded ETH 24h price corridor?
The ETH 24h corridor issued on 2026-10-27 spans $2,225 to $2,417 for the closing price at 2026-10-28 00:00 UTC. Its recorded model-implied probability is 85.0%. These locked bounds are daily-close estimates, not intraday limits or verified accuracy.
| Asset | Horizon | Lower bound | Upper bound | Implied probability | Reference stop |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETH | 24h | $2,225 | $2,417 | 85.0% | $2,178 |
Corridor
Lower bound$2,225
Upper bound$2,417
Declared P85.0%
Reference stop$2,178
Statusopen (target close 2026-10-28 00:00 UTC)
Tail probability (24h)
P(down > 5%)5.4% (base: 1.6%)
P(up > 5%)4.9% (base: 3.8%)
P(down > 10%)0.6% (base: 1.1%)
P(up > 10%)0.7% (base: 1.1%)
Baseline
180d base rate84.1% (within ±3%)
Model P75.3% (within ±3%)
Divergence−8.8 pp (more cautious)
Regime
Current regimelow-vol
Interpretationmodel is conservative here
Mathematical estimates, not financial advice.
Two-sided Weibull · Append-only research ledger