What is the recorded ETH 3d price corridor?
The ETH 3d corridor issued on 2026-10-27 spans $2,148 to $2,486 for the closing price at 2026-10-30 00:00 UTC. Its recorded model-implied probability is 84.3%. These locked bounds are daily-close estimates, not intraday limits or verified accuracy.
| Asset | Horizon | Lower bound | Upper bound | Implied probability | Reference stop |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETH | 3d | $2,148 | $2,486 | 84.3% | $2,078 |
Corridor
Lower bound$2,148
Upper bound$2,486
Declared P84.3%
Reference stop$2,078
Statusopen (target close 2026-10-30 00:00 UTC)
Tail probability (3d)
P(down > 5%)15.5% (base: 7.1%)
P(up > 5%)12.9% (base: 10.4%)
P(down > 10%)4.1% (base: 2.2%)
P(up > 10%)3.5% (base: 3.3%)
Baseline
180d base rate64.8% (within ±3%)
Model P52.4% (within ±3%)
Divergence−12.4 pp (more cautious)
Regime
Current regimelow-vol
Interpretationmodel is conservative here
Mathematical estimates, not financial advice.
Two-sided Weibull · Append-only research ledger