What is the recorded ETH 7d price corridor?
The ETH 7d corridor issued on 2026-10-27 spans $2,055 to $2,559 for the closing price at 2026-11-03 00:00 UTC. Its recorded model-implied probability is 85.0%. These locked bounds are daily-close estimates, not intraday limits or verified accuracy.
| Asset | Horizon | Lower bound | Upper bound | Implied probability | Reference stop |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETH | 7d | $2,055 | $2,559 | 85.0% | $1,883 |
Corridor
Lower bound$2,055
Upper bound$2,559
Declared P85.0%
Reference stop$1,883
Statusopen (target close 2026-11-03 00:00 UTC)
Tail probability (7d)
P(down > 5%)23.3% (base: 19.2%)
P(up > 5%)18.5% (base: 17.0%)
P(down > 10%)9.9% (base: 6.0%)
P(up > 10%)7.6% (base: 9.3%)
Baseline
180d base rate48.4% (within ±3%)
Model P40.8% (within ±3%)
Divergence−7.6 pp (more cautious)
Regime
Current regimelow-vol
Interpretationmodel is conservative here
Mathematical estimates, not financial advice.
Two-sided Weibull · Append-only research ledger