What is the recorded ADA 24h price corridor?
The ADA 24h corridor issued on 2026-10-27 spans $0.1958 to $0.2181 for the closing price at 2026-10-28 00:00 UTC. Its recorded model-implied probability is 85.0%. These locked bounds are daily-close estimates, not intraday limits or verified accuracy.
| Asset | Horizon | Lower bound | Upper bound | Implied probability | Reference stop |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADA | 24h | $0.1958 | $0.2181 | 85.0% | $0.1942 |
Corridor
Lower bound$0.1958
Upper bound$0.2181
Declared P85.0%
Reference stop$0.1942
Statusopen (target close 2026-10-28 00:00 UTC)
Tail probability (24h)
P(down > 5%)8.5% (base: 7.7%)
P(up > 5%)8.9% (base: 9.3%)
P(down > 10%)0.7% (base: 1.6%)
P(up > 10%)1.8% (base: 2.2%)
Baseline
180d base rate65.9% (within ±3%)
Model P62.8% (within ±3%)
Divergence−3.2 pp (more cautious)
Regime
Current regimelow-vol
Interpretationmodel is conservative here
Mathematical estimates, not financial advice.
Two-sided Weibull · Append-only research ledger