What is the recorded AVAX 24h price corridor?
The AVAX 24h corridor issued on 2026-10-27 spans $8.53 to $9.43 for the closing price at 2026-10-28 00:00 UTC. Its recorded model-implied probability is 85.0%. These locked bounds are daily-close estimates, not intraday limits or verified accuracy.
| Asset | Horizon | Lower bound | Upper bound | Implied probability | Reference stop |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVAX | 24h | $8.53 | $9.43 | 85.0% | $8.44 |
Corridor
Lower bound$8.53
Upper bound$9.43
Declared P85.0%
Reference stop$8.44
Statusopen (target close 2026-10-28 00:00 UTC)
Tail probability (24h)
P(down > 5%)7.5% (base: 6.0%)
P(up > 5%)7.5% (base: 7.1%)
P(down > 10%)0.7% (base: 1.1%)
P(up > 10%)1.2% (base: 1.6%)
Baseline
180d base rate72.0% (within ±3%)
Model P66.9% (within ±3%)
Divergence−5.1 pp (more cautious)
Regime
Current regimelow-vol
Interpretationmodel is conservative here
Mathematical estimates, not financial advice.
Two-sided Weibull · Append-only research ledger