What is the recorded AVAX 3d price corridor?
The AVAX 3d corridor issued on 2026-10-27 spans $8.18 to $9.77 for the closing price at 2026-10-30 00:00 UTC. Its recorded model-implied probability is 85.0%. These locked bounds are daily-close estimates, not intraday limits or verified accuracy.
| Asset | Horizon | Lower bound | Upper bound | Implied probability | Reference stop |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVAX | 3d | $8.18 | $9.77 | 85.0% | $8.04 |
Corridor
Lower bound$8.18
Upper bound$9.77
Declared P85.0%
Reference stop$8.04
Statusopen (target close 2026-10-30 00:00 UTC)
Tail probability (3d)
P(down > 5%)20.8% (base: 15.4%)
P(up > 5%)15.8% (base: 14.8%)
P(down > 10%)5.5% (base: 4.4%)
P(up > 10%)5.9% (base: 4.9%)
Baseline
180d base rate53.8% (within ±3%)
Model P43.5% (within ±3%)
Divergence−10.4 pp (more cautious)
Regime
Current regimenormal
Interpretationno regime-specific note
Mathematical estimates, not financial advice.
Two-sided Weibull · Append-only research ledger