What is the recorded AVAX 7d price corridor?
The AVAX 7d corridor issued on 2026-10-27 spans $7.79 to $10.06 for the closing price at 2026-11-03 00:00 UTC. Its recorded model-implied probability is 85.0%. These locked bounds are daily-close estimates, not intraday limits or verified accuracy.
| Asset | Horizon | Lower bound | Upper bound | Implied probability | Reference stop |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVAX | 7d | $7.79 | $10.06 | 85.0% | $7.48 |
Corridor
Lower bound$7.79
Upper bound$10.06
Declared P85.0%
Reference stop$7.48
Statusopen (target close 2026-11-03 00:00 UTC)
Tail probability (7d)
P(down > 5%)30.3% (base: 25.3%)
P(up > 5%)18.9% (base: 19.8%)
P(down > 10%)13.3% (base: 8.8%)
P(up > 10%)9.7% (base: 11.0%)
Baseline
180d base rate34.1% (within ±3%)
Model P34.1% (within ±3%)
Divergence+0.0 pp (less cautious)
Regime
Current regimenormal
Interpretationno regime-specific note
Mathematical estimates, not financial advice.
Two-sided Weibull · Append-only research ledger