Observation ledger
Every estimate, regardless of outcome. Original records cannot be modified or deleted. Payload verification compares the record with its stored digest; no independent external timestamp is provided.
Daily manifests cover records from activation. Legacy records were not chained. No independent external timestamp exists; integrity verification does not establish model accuracy.
Price-level ledger
Persisted bounds and reference stops are evaluated against the target daily close. C+cap targets 85% before capping; final implied probabilities are recorded per observation. Legacy base-policy records use a separate 90% target. Stop events measure closing prices, not intraday execution.
100%
inside
0.0%
close below stop
20
resolved
| Issued UTC | Asset | Horizon | Lower bound | Upper bound | Stop | Close | Outcome | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-27 | ADA | 3d | $0.1865 | $0.2268 | $0.1793 | — | open until 2026-10-29 | |
| 2026-10-27 | ADA | 24h | $0.1958 | $0.2181 | $0.1942 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-27 | ADA | 7d | $0.1751 | $0.2347 | $0.1575 | — | open until 2026-11-02 | |
| 2026-10-27 | AVAX | 3d | $8.18 | $9.77 | $8.04 | — | open until 2026-10-29 | |
| 2026-10-27 | AVAX | 7d | $7.79 | $10.06 | $7.48 | — | open until 2026-11-02 | |
| 2026-10-27 | AVAX | 24h | $8.53 | $9.43 | $8.44 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-27 | BNB | 7d | $680 | $791 | $603 | — | open until 2026-11-02 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 83.2% |
| 2026-10-27 | BNB | 24h | $721 | $763 | $714 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 82.9% |
| 2026-10-27 | BNB | 3d | $703 | $776 | $658 | — | open until 2026-10-29 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 81.8% |
| 2026-10-27 | BTC | 7d | $73,422 | $86,191 | $68,005 | — | open until 2026-11-02 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.6% |
| 2026-10-27 | BTC | 3d | $75,768 | $84,128 | $73,269 | — | open until 2026-10-29 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.6% |
| 2026-10-27 | BTC | 24h | $77,708 | $82,517 | $76,835 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-27 | DOGE | 7d | $0.0688 | $0.0859 | $0.0687 | — | open until 2026-11-02 | |
| 2026-10-27 | DOGE | 3d | $0.0716 | $0.0837 | $0.0716 | — | open until 2026-10-29 | |
| 2026-10-27 | DOGE | 24h | $0.0742 | $0.0813 | $0.0735 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-27 | ETH | 3d | $2,148 | $2,486 | $2,078 | — | open until 2026-10-29 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.3% |
| 2026-10-27 | ETH | 7d | $2,055 | $2,559 | $1,883 | — | open until 2026-11-02 | |
| 2026-10-27 | ETH | 24h | $2,225 | $2,417 | $2,178 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-27 | LINK | 7d | $10.05 | $12.77 | $9.67 | — | open until 2026-11-02 | |
| 2026-10-27 | LINK | 24h | $10.88 | $11.95 | $10.83 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-27 | LINK | 3d | $10.49 | $12.32 | $10.30 | — | open until 2026-10-29 | |
| 2026-10-27 | SOL | 24h | $96.43 | $105 | $95.92 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.5% |
| 2026-10-27 | SOL | 3d | $92.70 | $108 | $88.46 | — | open until 2026-10-29 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.1% |
| 2026-10-27 | SOL | 7d | $88.55 | $112 | $81.94 | — | open until 2026-11-02 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.3% |
| 2026-10-27 | TRX | 24h | $0.3256 | $0.3333 | $0.3200 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 74.3% |
| 2026-10-27 | TRX | 7d | $0.3190 | $0.3391 | $0.3073 | — | open until 2026-11-02 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 70.2% |
| 2026-10-27 | TRX | 3d | $0.3226 | $0.3358 | $0.3155 | — | open until 2026-10-29 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 73.7% |
| 2026-10-27 | XRP | 7d | $1.17 | $1.46 | $1.14 | — | open until 2026-11-02 | |
| 2026-10-27 | XRP | 24h | $1.25 | $1.37 | $1.25 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-27 | XRP | 3d | $1.22 | $1.41 | $1.19 | — | open until 2026-10-29 | |
| 2026-10-26 | ADA | 3d | $0.1842 | $0.2242 | $0.1771 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | |
| 2026-10-26 | ADA | 24h | $0.1934 | $0.2156 | $0.1885 | $0.2067 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-27 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-26 | ADA | 7d | $0.1730 | $0.2318 | $0.1608 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | |
| 2026-10-26 | AVAX | 24h | $8.48 | $9.38 | $8.35 | $8.98 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-27 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-26 | AVAX | 7d | $7.75 | $10.00 | $7.58 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | |
| 2026-10-26 | AVAX | 3d | $8.13 | $9.72 | $8.16 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | |
| 2026-10-26 | BNB | 7d | $676 | $787 | $591 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 83.2% |
| 2026-10-26 | BNB | 3d | $699 | $771 | $667 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 81.8% |
| 2026-10-26 | BNB | 24h | $717 | $759 | $707 | $743 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-27 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual.Capped due to volatility · implied probability 82.9% |
| 2026-10-26 | BTC | 24h | $77,715 | $82,536 | $77,089 | $80,151 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-27 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-26 | BTC | 3d | $75,781 | $84,140 | $74,563 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.5% |
| 2026-10-26 | BTC | 7d | $73,437 | $86,206 | $68,605 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.5% |
| 2026-10-26 | DOGE | 3d | $0.0708 | $0.0828 | $0.0703 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | |
| 2026-10-26 | DOGE | 7d | $0.0680 | $0.0850 | $0.0677 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | |
| 2026-10-26 | DOGE | 24h | $0.0734 | $0.0805 | $0.0729 | $0.0778 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-27 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-26 | ETH | 3d | $2,153 | $2,492 | $2,060 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.3% |
| 2026-10-26 | ETH | 24h | $2,230 | $2,424 | $2,227 | $2,325 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-27 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-26 | ETH | 7d | $2,060 | $2,565 | $1,870 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | |
| 2026-10-26 | LINK | 24h | $10.92 | $12.01 | $10.92 | $11.41 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-27 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-26 | LINK | 3d | $10.54 | $12.38 | $10.40 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | |
| 2026-10-26 | LINK | 7d | $10.09 | $12.83 | $9.75 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | |
| 2026-10-26 | SOL | 7d | $88.96 | $113 | $83.80 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.3% |
| 2026-10-26 | SOL | 24h | $96.86 | $106 | $96.07 | $101 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-27 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual.Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.4% |
| 2026-10-26 | SOL | 3d | $93.12 | $109 | $91.60 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.1% |
| 2026-10-26 | TRX | 7d | $0.3198 | $0.3400 | $0.3115 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 69.8% |
| 2026-10-26 | TRX | 24h | $0.3265 | $0.3342 | $0.3246 | $0.3295 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-27 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual.Capped due to volatility · implied probability 74.2% |
| 2026-10-26 | TRX | 3d | $0.3234 | $0.3366 | $0.3203 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 73.2% |
| 2026-10-26 | XRP | 24h | $1.24 | $1.35 | $1.24 | $1.31 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-27 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-26 | XRP | 3d | $1.20 | $1.39 | $1.19 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | |
| 2026-10-26 | XRP | 7d | $1.16 | $1.44 | $1.13 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | |
| 2026-10-25 | ADA | 3d | $0.1871 | $0.2305 | $0.1805 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-25 | ADA | 7d | $0.1694 | $0.2452 | $0.1586 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | |
| 2026-10-25 | ADA | 24h | $0.1975 | $0.2202 | $0.1956 | $0.2042 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-25 | AVAX | 3d | $8.25 | $9.78 | $8.05 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-25 | AVAX | 7d | $7.78 | $10.20 | $7.50 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | |
| 2026-10-25 | AVAX | 24h | $8.60 | $9.40 | $8.46 | $8.93 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-25 | BNB | 7d | $669 | $793 | $601 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | |
| 2026-10-25 | BNB | 24h | $720 | $759 | $711 | $739 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-25 | BNB | 3d | $700 | $772 | $656 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-25 | BTC | 3d | $75,402 | $85,996 | $73,923 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-25 | BTC | 7d | $71,210 | $89,705 | $68,588 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | |
| 2026-10-25 | BTC | 24h | $78,056 | $83,702 | $77,563 | $80,154 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-25 | DOGE | 7d | $0.0688 | $0.0866 | $0.0686 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | |
| 2026-10-25 | DOGE | 3d | $0.0720 | $0.0836 | $0.0714 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-25 | DOGE | 24h | $0.0745 | $0.0809 | $0.0734 | $0.0769 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-25 | ETH | 3d | $2,179 | $2,528 | $2,107 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-25 | ETH | 24h | $2,268 | $2,446 | $2,210 | $2,330 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-25 | ETH | 7d | $2,089 | $2,598 | $1,909 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | |
| 2026-10-25 | LINK | 3d | $10.74 | $12.54 | $10.50 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-25 | LINK | 7d | $10.17 | $13.12 | $9.86 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | |
| 2026-10-25 | LINK | 24h | $11.17 | $12.11 | $11.04 | $11.46 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-25 | SOL | 3d | $93.25 | $111 | $89.68 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-25 | SOL | 7d | $86.48 | $117 | $83.03 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | |
| 2026-10-25 | SOL | 24h | $97.97 | $107 | $97.27 | $101 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-25 | TRX | 24h | $0.3248 | $0.3335 | $0.3197 | $0.3304 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-25 | TRX | 3d | $0.3206 | $0.3364 | $0.3146 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-25 | TRX | 7d | $0.3149 | $0.3416 | $0.3067 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | |
| 2026-10-25 | XRP | 7d | $1.16 | $1.47 | $1.13 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | |
| 2026-10-25 | XRP | 3d | $1.20 | $1.41 | $1.19 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-25 | XRP | 24h | $1.25 | $1.35 | $1.24 | $1.30 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
Event probabilities (2160)
2160 / 2160
rows / distinct keys consistent
90
event groups (asset × horizon × date; correlated)
0.075
Informative Brier · 10–90% (n=164)
0.026
All-event Brier (n=480) · max 100.0%
| Date | Observation | Model | 180d base rate | Lift (pp) | Informative (10–90%) | Outcome | Payload hash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-26 | ETH · close beyond ±2% · 7d | 70.5% | 64.8% | 5.7 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 0a7db8b52b |
| 2026-10-26 | TRX · close increase ≤2% · 7d | 72.6% | 76.9% | -4.3 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | fe138406ad |
| 2026-10-26 | BTC · close decline ≤2% · 3d | 71.3% | 76.9% | -5.7 | yes | open until 2026-10-28 | 249d1a3038 |
| 2026-10-26 | LINK · close decline ≤5% · 7d | 72.9% | 76.4% | -3.5 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 9462d7b88e |
| 2026-10-26 | BNB · close beyond ±2% · 7d | 64.9% | 68.7% | -3.7 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 23497f2644 |
| 2026-10-26 | LINK · close within ±5% · 24h | 86.9% | 86.8% | 0.0 | yes | occurred | c80db14515 |
| 2026-10-26 | AVAX · close beyond ±2% · 7d | 75.7% | 77.5% | -1.8 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | f224ce9800 |
| 2026-10-26 | SOL · close decline ≤3% · 3d | 71.3% | 75.8% | -4.5 | yes | open until 2026-10-28 | 98d4636c3b |
| 2026-10-26 | SOL · close increase ≤2% · 3d | 68.2% | 67.0% | 1.2 | yes | open until 2026-10-28 | 2244f8231a |
| 2026-10-26 | BNB · close within ±3% · 24h | 84.5% | 90.1% | -5.6 | yes | occurred | 8bcad3c001 |
| 2026-10-26 | AVAX · close within ±8% · 7d | 68.8% | 71.4% | -2.7 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 93577141ce |
| 2026-10-26 | DOGE · close decline ≤3% · 3d | 67.5% | 73.1% | -5.5 | yes | open until 2026-10-28 | b2ff66247b |
| 2026-10-26 | LINK · close beyond ±2% · 3d | 70.7% | 64.8% | 5.8 | yes | open until 2026-10-28 | 101644d323 |
| 2026-10-26 | BTC · close beyond ±2% · 7d | 65.6% | 64.8% | 0.8 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 563ad06d2b |
| 2026-10-26 | SOL · close beyond ±2% · 3d | 67.5% | 63.7% | 3.8 | yes | open until 2026-10-28 | e57e27cea7 |
| 2026-10-26 | AVAX · close within ±10% · 7d | 77.1% | 80.8% | -3.7 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 960be55763 |
| 2026-10-26 | SOL · close within ±5% · 3d | 67.4% | 72.0% | -4.5 | yes | open until 2026-10-28 | 06678101b2 |
| 2026-10-26 | ETH · close increase ≤2% · 3d | 71.5% | 75.3% | -3.8 | yes | open until 2026-10-28 | 4cdc9e6941 |
| 2026-10-26 | ETH · close within ±8% · 7d | 75.2% | 79.7% | -4.5 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | a0ed8c2d26 |
| 2026-10-26 | SOL · close beyond ±2% · 7d | 75.4% | 74.7% | 0.6 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 387ca1a5ea |
| 2026-10-26 | AVAX · close increase ≤2% · 3d | 70.8% | 70.9% | -0.1 | yes | open until 2026-10-28 | 198d3d5c8c |
| 2026-10-26 | SOL · close within ±3% · 24h | 70.4% | 72.0% | -1.6 | yes | occurred | ee624c068d |
| 2026-10-26 | ETH · close within ±3% · 24h | 75.0% | 84.1% | -9.0 | yes | occurred | 0e0ab08566 |
| 2026-10-26 | ETH · close increase ≤3% · 7d | 73.2% | 76.4% | -3.1 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 93027cdebe |
| 2026-10-26 | BTC · close decline ≤2% · 7d | 64.7% | 66.5% | -1.8 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 76f1e679d6 |
| 2026-10-26 | ADA · close decline ≤2% · 24h | 69.1% | 73.1% | -4.0 | yes | occurred | 1960447826 |
| 2026-10-26 | DOGE · close decline ≤2% · 24h | 75.0% | 80.2% | -5.2 | yes | occurred | 6555deaac4 |
| 2026-10-26 | BNB · close decline ≤2% · 7d | 66.0% | 69.2% | -3.2 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 45d9e9763a |
| 2026-10-26 | AVAX · close decline ≤3% · 3d | 67.1% | 74.7% | -7.6 | yes | open until 2026-10-28 | aa9eae60e8 |
| 2026-10-26 | DOGE · close beyond ±3% · 7d | 66.8% | 63.2% | 3.6 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 69368ff6d8 |
| 2026-10-26 | LINK · close decline ≤2% · 24h | 73.3% | 77.5% | -4.1 | yes | occurred | 2398a75a7b |
| 2026-10-26 | LINK · close increase ≤2% · 3d | 67.7% | 66.5% | 1.2 | yes | open until 2026-10-28 | 97b20d880e |
| 2026-10-26 | AVAX · close beyond ±3% · 7d | 65.7% | 65.4% | 0.3 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | d67910fa39 |
| 2026-10-26 | XRP · close within ±8% · 7d | 74.1% | 79.1% | -5.0 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 2f7d56824a |
| 2026-10-26 | AVAX · close within ±3% · 24h | 66.6% | 72.0% | -5.3 | yes | occurred | ab814976d0 |
| 2026-10-26 | AVAX · close decline ≤2% · 24h | 73.2% | 77.5% | -4.2 | yes | occurred | 6499b2bfd6 |
| 2026-10-26 | AVAX · close beyond ±2% · 3d | 69.7% | 62.1% | 7.6 | yes | open until 2026-10-28 | 6f71d7d974 |
| 2026-10-26 | DOGE · close beyond ±3% · 3d | 53.3% | 46.7% | 6.6 | yes | open until 2026-10-28 | edcc196dd8 |
| 2026-10-26 | XRP · close within ±3% · 24h | 74.0% | 80.8% | -6.8 | yes | occurred | e9c80149fc |
| 2026-10-26 | AVAX · close decline ≤5% · 7d | 69.9% | 75.3% | -5.4 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | ea4d921491 |
| 2026-10-26 | LINK · close increase ≤2% · 7d | 64.5% | 61.5% | 3.0 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 2df02012c1 |
| 2026-10-26 | SOL · close increase ≤2% · 7d | 67.4% | 63.2% | 4.2 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 204e757a6d |
| 2026-10-26 | SOL · close beyond ±3% · 7d | 64.8% | 64.3% | 0.5 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 55d48b3364 |
| 2026-10-26 | ETH · close decline ≤2% · 3d | 67.1% | 68.1% | -1.0 | yes | open until 2026-10-28 | 5003e17893 |
| 2026-10-26 | ETH · close beyond ±3% · 7d | 59.2% | 51.6% | 7.6 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 6377751844 |
| 2026-10-26 | XRP · close beyond ±3% · 7d | 63.0% | 62.1% | 0.9 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 08b8f2b184 |
| 2026-10-26 | LINK · close decline ≤3% · 3d | 69.3% | 74.2% | -4.9 | yes | open until 2026-10-28 | 104b185d24 |
| 2026-10-26 | XRP · close beyond ±2% · 3d | 61.8% | 56.6% | 5.2 | yes | open until 2026-10-28 | 2f75dbd496 |
| 2026-10-26 | DOGE · close beyond ±2% · 3d | 67.3% | 58.8% | 8.5 | yes | open until 2026-10-28 | 50eccd8717 |
| 2026-10-26 | ETH · close within ±5% · 3d | 71.4% | 83.0% | -11.5 | yes | open until 2026-10-28 | c82eb51e1f |