Observation ledger
Every estimate, regardless of outcome. Original records cannot be modified or deleted. Payload verification compares the record with its stored digest; no independent external timestamp is provided.
Daily manifests cover records from activation. Legacy records were not chained. No independent external timestamp exists; integrity verification does not establish model accuracy.
Price-level ledger
Persisted bounds and reference stops are evaluated against the target daily close. C+cap targets 85% before capping; final implied probabilities are recorded per observation. Legacy base-policy records use a separate 90% target. Stop events measure closing prices, not intraday execution.
100%
inside
0.0%
close below stop
20
resolved
| Issued UTC | Asset | Horizon | Lower bound | Upper bound | Stop | Close | Outcome | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-27 | ADA | 3d | $0.1865 | $0.2268 | $0.1793 | — | open until 2026-10-29 | |
| 2026-10-27 | ADA | 24h | $0.1958 | $0.2181 | $0.1942 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-27 | ADA | 7d | $0.1751 | $0.2347 | $0.1575 | — | open until 2026-11-02 | |
| 2026-10-27 | AVAX | 3d | $8.18 | $9.77 | $8.04 | — | open until 2026-10-29 | |
| 2026-10-27 | AVAX | 7d | $7.79 | $10.06 | $7.48 | — | open until 2026-11-02 | |
| 2026-10-27 | AVAX | 24h | $8.53 | $9.43 | $8.44 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-27 | BNB | 7d | $680 | $791 | $603 | — | open until 2026-11-02 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 83.2% |
| 2026-10-27 | BNB | 24h | $721 | $763 | $714 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 82.9% |
| 2026-10-27 | BNB | 3d | $703 | $776 | $658 | — | open until 2026-10-29 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 81.8% |
| 2026-10-27 | BTC | 7d | $73,422 | $86,191 | $68,005 | — | open until 2026-11-02 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.6% |
| 2026-10-27 | BTC | 3d | $75,768 | $84,128 | $73,269 | — | open until 2026-10-29 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.6% |
| 2026-10-27 | BTC | 24h | $77,708 | $82,517 | $76,835 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-27 | DOGE | 7d | $0.0688 | $0.0859 | $0.0687 | — | open until 2026-11-02 | |
| 2026-10-27 | DOGE | 3d | $0.0716 | $0.0837 | $0.0716 | — | open until 2026-10-29 | |
| 2026-10-27 | DOGE | 24h | $0.0742 | $0.0813 | $0.0735 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-27 | ETH | 3d | $2,148 | $2,486 | $2,078 | — | open until 2026-10-29 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.3% |
| 2026-10-27 | ETH | 7d | $2,055 | $2,559 | $1,883 | — | open until 2026-11-02 | |
| 2026-10-27 | ETH | 24h | $2,225 | $2,417 | $2,178 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-27 | LINK | 7d | $10.05 | $12.77 | $9.67 | — | open until 2026-11-02 | |
| 2026-10-27 | LINK | 24h | $10.88 | $11.95 | $10.83 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-27 | LINK | 3d | $10.49 | $12.32 | $10.30 | — | open until 2026-10-29 | |
| 2026-10-27 | SOL | 24h | $96.43 | $105 | $95.92 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.5% |
| 2026-10-27 | SOL | 3d | $92.70 | $108 | $88.46 | — | open until 2026-10-29 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.1% |
| 2026-10-27 | SOL | 7d | $88.55 | $112 | $81.94 | — | open until 2026-11-02 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.3% |
| 2026-10-27 | TRX | 24h | $0.3256 | $0.3333 | $0.3200 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 74.3% |
| 2026-10-27 | TRX | 7d | $0.3190 | $0.3391 | $0.3073 | — | open until 2026-11-02 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 70.2% |
| 2026-10-27 | TRX | 3d | $0.3226 | $0.3358 | $0.3155 | — | open until 2026-10-29 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 73.7% |
| 2026-10-27 | XRP | 7d | $1.17 | $1.46 | $1.14 | — | open until 2026-11-02 | |
| 2026-10-27 | XRP | 24h | $1.25 | $1.37 | $1.25 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-27 | XRP | 3d | $1.22 | $1.41 | $1.19 | — | open until 2026-10-29 | |
| 2026-10-26 | ADA | 3d | $0.1842 | $0.2242 | $0.1771 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | |
| 2026-10-26 | ADA | 24h | $0.1934 | $0.2156 | $0.1885 | $0.2067 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-27 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-26 | ADA | 7d | $0.1730 | $0.2318 | $0.1608 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | |
| 2026-10-26 | AVAX | 24h | $8.48 | $9.38 | $8.35 | $8.98 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-27 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-26 | AVAX | 7d | $7.75 | $10.00 | $7.58 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | |
| 2026-10-26 | AVAX | 3d | $8.13 | $9.72 | $8.16 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | |
| 2026-10-26 | BNB | 7d | $676 | $787 | $591 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 83.2% |
| 2026-10-26 | BNB | 3d | $699 | $771 | $667 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 81.8% |
| 2026-10-26 | BNB | 24h | $717 | $759 | $707 | $743 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-27 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual.Capped due to volatility · implied probability 82.9% |
| 2026-10-26 | BTC | 24h | $77,715 | $82,536 | $77,089 | $80,151 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-27 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-26 | BTC | 3d | $75,781 | $84,140 | $74,563 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.5% |
| 2026-10-26 | BTC | 7d | $73,437 | $86,206 | $68,605 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.5% |
| 2026-10-26 | DOGE | 3d | $0.0708 | $0.0828 | $0.0703 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | |
| 2026-10-26 | DOGE | 7d | $0.0680 | $0.0850 | $0.0677 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | |
| 2026-10-26 | DOGE | 24h | $0.0734 | $0.0805 | $0.0729 | $0.0778 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-27 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-26 | ETH | 3d | $2,153 | $2,492 | $2,060 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.3% |
| 2026-10-26 | ETH | 24h | $2,230 | $2,424 | $2,227 | $2,325 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-27 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-26 | ETH | 7d | $2,060 | $2,565 | $1,870 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | |
| 2026-10-26 | LINK | 24h | $10.92 | $12.01 | $10.92 | $11.41 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-27 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-26 | LINK | 3d | $10.54 | $12.38 | $10.40 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | |
| 2026-10-26 | LINK | 7d | $10.09 | $12.83 | $9.75 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | |
| 2026-10-26 | SOL | 7d | $88.96 | $113 | $83.80 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.3% |
| 2026-10-26 | SOL | 24h | $96.86 | $106 | $96.07 | $101 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-27 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual.Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.4% |
| 2026-10-26 | SOL | 3d | $93.12 | $109 | $91.60 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.1% |
| 2026-10-26 | TRX | 7d | $0.3198 | $0.3400 | $0.3115 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 69.8% |
| 2026-10-26 | TRX | 24h | $0.3265 | $0.3342 | $0.3246 | $0.3295 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-27 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual.Capped due to volatility · implied probability 74.2% |
| 2026-10-26 | TRX | 3d | $0.3234 | $0.3366 | $0.3203 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 73.2% |
| 2026-10-26 | XRP | 24h | $1.24 | $1.35 | $1.24 | $1.31 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-27 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-26 | XRP | 3d | $1.20 | $1.39 | $1.19 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | |
| 2026-10-26 | XRP | 7d | $1.16 | $1.44 | $1.13 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | |
| 2026-10-25 | ADA | 3d | $0.1871 | $0.2305 | $0.1805 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-25 | ADA | 7d | $0.1694 | $0.2452 | $0.1586 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | |
| 2026-10-25 | ADA | 24h | $0.1975 | $0.2202 | $0.1956 | $0.2042 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-25 | AVAX | 3d | $8.25 | $9.78 | $8.05 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-25 | AVAX | 7d | $7.78 | $10.20 | $7.50 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | |
| 2026-10-25 | AVAX | 24h | $8.60 | $9.40 | $8.46 | $8.93 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-25 | BNB | 7d | $669 | $793 | $601 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | |
| 2026-10-25 | BNB | 24h | $720 | $759 | $711 | $739 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-25 | BNB | 3d | $700 | $772 | $656 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-25 | BTC | 3d | $75,402 | $85,996 | $73,923 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-25 | BTC | 7d | $71,210 | $89,705 | $68,588 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | |
| 2026-10-25 | BTC | 24h | $78,056 | $83,702 | $77,563 | $80,154 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-25 | DOGE | 7d | $0.0688 | $0.0866 | $0.0686 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | |
| 2026-10-25 | DOGE | 3d | $0.0720 | $0.0836 | $0.0714 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-25 | DOGE | 24h | $0.0745 | $0.0809 | $0.0734 | $0.0769 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-25 | ETH | 3d | $2,179 | $2,528 | $2,107 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-25 | ETH | 24h | $2,268 | $2,446 | $2,210 | $2,330 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-25 | ETH | 7d | $2,089 | $2,598 | $1,909 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | |
| 2026-10-25 | LINK | 3d | $10.74 | $12.54 | $10.50 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-25 | LINK | 7d | $10.17 | $13.12 | $9.86 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | |
| 2026-10-25 | LINK | 24h | $11.17 | $12.11 | $11.04 | $11.46 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-25 | SOL | 3d | $93.25 | $111 | $89.68 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-25 | SOL | 7d | $86.48 | $117 | $83.03 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | |
| 2026-10-25 | SOL | 24h | $97.97 | $107 | $97.27 | $101 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-25 | TRX | 24h | $0.3248 | $0.3335 | $0.3197 | $0.3304 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-25 | TRX | 3d | $0.3206 | $0.3364 | $0.3146 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-25 | TRX | 7d | $0.3149 | $0.3416 | $0.3067 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | |
| 2026-10-25 | XRP | 7d | $1.16 | $1.47 | $1.13 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | |
| 2026-10-25 | XRP | 3d | $1.20 | $1.41 | $1.19 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-25 | XRP | 24h | $1.25 | $1.35 | $1.24 | $1.30 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
Event probabilities (2160)
2160 / 2160
rows / distinct keys consistent
90
event groups (asset × horizon × date; correlated)
0.075
Informative Brier · 10–90% (n=164)
0.026
All-event Brier (n=480) · max 100.0%
| Date | Observation | Model | 180d base rate | Lift (pp) | Informative (10–90%) | Outcome | Payload hash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-26 | SOL · close beyond ±10% · 24h | 1.2% | 1.7% | -0.5 | — | not occurred | d8595a7c22 |
| 2026-10-26 | SOL · close beyond ±8% · 24h | 3.0% | 2.2% | 0.8 | — | not occurred | 9eb3e39409 |
| 2026-10-26 | SOL · close beyond ±5% · 24h | 12.0% | 9.3% | 2.7 | yes | not occurred | 7fbf5d09ea |
| 2026-10-26 | SOL · close beyond ±3% · 24h | 29.6% | 28.0% | 1.6 | yes | not occurred | 17dd7f5a37 |
| 2026-10-26 | SOL · close beyond ±2% · 24h | 45.6% | 39.0% | 6.6 | yes | not occurred | 1857e40baa |
| 2026-10-26 | SOL · close within ±3% · 3d | 46.5% | 50.5% | -4.1 | yes | open until 2026-10-28 | 21de5ec2f8 |
| 2026-10-26 | SOL · close within ±2% · 3d | 32.5% | 36.3% | -3.8 | yes | open until 2026-10-28 | c0e98d3156 |
| 2026-10-26 | BNB · close beyond ±15% · 7d | 2.5% | 2.2% | 0.3 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | 55da3a1dc1 |
| 2026-10-26 | BNB · close beyond ±10% · 7d | 8.7% | 8.2% | 0.5 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | ff8357e907 |
| 2026-10-26 | BNB · close beyond ±8% · 7d | 14.5% | 11.0% | 3.5 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | ab8df45cee |
| 2026-10-26 | BNB · close beyond ±5% · 7d | 31.1% | 26.4% | 4.7 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 0f31a48f88 |
| 2026-10-26 | TRX · close beyond ±2% · 3d | 26.2% | 25.3% | 0.9 | yes | open until 2026-10-28 | f05d8b9f0b |
| 2026-10-26 | TRX · close beyond ±3% · 3d | 11.4% | 9.9% | 1.5 | yes | open until 2026-10-28 | dd715a8e2c |
| 2026-10-26 | TRX · close beyond ±5% · 3d | 2.2% | 3.3% | -1.1 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | 777a0bd269 |
| 2026-10-26 | TRX · close beyond ±8% · 3d | 0.5% | 1.1% | -0.6 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | 7bf98d59c7 |
| 2026-10-26 | TRX · close beyond ±10% · 3d | 0.5% | 0.5% | -0.0 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | 72e1023a24 |
| 2026-10-26 | TRX · close beyond ±15% · 3d | 0.5% | 0.5% | -0.0 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | ca3a170a37 |
| 2026-10-26 | TRX · close within ±2% · 7d | 50.1% | 58.2% | -8.1 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 6e571599ec |
| 2026-10-26 | BNB · close beyond ±3% · 7d | 51.1% | 52.8% | -1.6 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 2edd474540 |
| 2026-10-26 | LINK · close decline ≤3% · 7d | 62.3% | 63.2% | -0.9 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 2405124b51 |
| 2026-10-26 | BNB · close within ±3% · 7d | 48.9% | 47.3% | 1.6 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 1373508448 |
| 2026-10-26 | BNB · close within ±2% · 7d | 35.1% | 31.3% | 3.8 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | df0fcd35bf |
| 2026-10-26 | BNB · close beyond ±15% · 3d | 0.5% | 0.5% | -0.0 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | 5c3929fa8d |
| 2026-10-26 | BNB · close beyond ±10% · 3d | 2.8% | 5.0% | -2.2 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | b5c1981133 |
| 2026-10-26 | BNB · close beyond ±8% · 3d | 5.7% | 6.0% | -0.3 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | 3bc6794e39 |
| 2026-10-26 | BNB · close beyond ±5% · 3d | 17.4% | 12.1% | 5.3 | yes | open until 2026-10-28 | 15b751f5d4 |
| 2026-10-26 | BNB · close beyond ±3% · 3d | 36.0% | 29.1% | 6.9 | yes | open until 2026-10-28 | d37060ebcb |
| 2026-10-26 | BNB · close beyond ±2% · 3d | 51.5% | 45.1% | 6.5 | yes | open until 2026-10-28 | 898ff16c48 |
| 2026-10-26 | BNB · close beyond ±15% · 24h | 0.5% | 0.5% | -0.0 | — | not occurred | 853d871c15 |
| 2026-10-26 | BNB · close beyond ±10% · 24h | 0.5% | 1.1% | -0.6 | — | not occurred | fe0ca48986 |
| 2026-10-26 | BNB · close beyond ±8% · 24h | 0.6% | 1.1% | -0.5 | — | not occurred | bc6d5088eb |
| 2026-10-26 | BNB · close beyond ±5% · 24h | 4.2% | 3.9% | 0.3 | — | not occurred | 666d3ff768 |
| 2026-10-26 | BNB · close beyond ±3% · 24h | 15.4% | 9.9% | 5.6 | yes | not occurred | 73036d4160 |
| 2026-10-26 | TRX · close beyond ±2% · 7d | 49.9% | 41.8% | 8.1 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 123196966d |
| 2026-10-26 | TRX · close beyond ±3% · 7d | 30.5% | 24.7% | 5.8 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 045fb4226c |
| 2026-10-26 | TRX · close beyond ±5% · 7d | 10.0% | 8.8% | 1.2 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 43ca5d20ed |
| 2026-10-26 | TRX · close beyond ±8% · 7d | 1.7% | 1.7% | 0.0 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | 98f950cc31 |
| 2026-10-26 | TRX · close beyond ±10% · 7d | 0.5% | 1.1% | -0.6 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | 119212348f |
| 2026-10-26 | TRX · close beyond ±15% · 7d | 0.5% | 0.5% | -0.0 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | 91ee124031 |
| 2026-10-26 | BNB · close beyond ±2% · 24h | 29.3% | 21.4% | 7.9 | yes | not occurred | a4b881c92b |
| 2026-10-26 | BNB · close within ±3% · 3d | 63.9% | 70.9% | -6.9 | yes | open until 2026-10-28 | b2e4f9d961 |
| 2026-10-26 | BNB · close within ±2% · 3d | 48.5% | 54.9% | -6.5 | yes | open until 2026-10-28 | 9e59edbb31 |
| 2026-10-26 | ETH · close beyond ±15% · 7d | 7.3% | 6.6% | 0.7 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | 3b72aff5a4 |
| 2026-10-26 | ETH · close beyond ±10% · 7d | 17.5% | 14.8% | 2.7 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 4fb3e67726 |
| 2026-10-26 | ETH · close beyond ±8% · 7d | 24.8% | 20.3% | 4.5 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | ca9f223656 |
| 2026-10-26 | ETH · close beyond ±5% · 7d | 41.8% | 36.3% | 5.6 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | b896237aa1 |
| 2026-10-26 | ETH · close decline ≤2% · 7d | 61.6% | 66.5% | -4.9 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | ace6facd5c |
| 2026-10-26 | ETH · close within ±5% · 7d | 58.2% | 63.7% | -5.5 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 18e10545d7 |
| 2026-10-26 | ETH · close within ±3% · 7d | 40.8% | 48.4% | -7.6 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 14ec5774ba |
| 2026-10-26 | AVAX · close beyond ±2% · 24h | 49.0% | 44.5% | 4.5 | yes | not occurred | c8c39b2ca1 |