Observation ledger
Every estimate, regardless of outcome. Original records cannot be modified or deleted. Payload verification compares the record with its stored digest; no independent external timestamp is provided.
Daily manifests cover records from activation. Legacy records were not chained. No independent external timestamp exists; integrity verification does not establish model accuracy.
Price-level ledger
Persisted bounds and reference stops are evaluated against the target daily close. C+cap targets 85% before capping; final implied probabilities are recorded per observation. Legacy base-policy records use a separate 90% target. Stop events measure closing prices, not intraday execution.
100%
inside
0.0%
close below stop
20
resolved
| Issued UTC | Asset | Horizon | Lower bound | Upper bound | Stop | Close | Outcome | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-27 | ADA | 3d | $0.1865 | $0.2268 | $0.1793 | — | open until 2026-10-29 | |
| 2026-10-27 | ADA | 24h | $0.1958 | $0.2181 | $0.1942 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-27 | ADA | 7d | $0.1751 | $0.2347 | $0.1575 | — | open until 2026-11-02 | |
| 2026-10-27 | AVAX | 3d | $8.18 | $9.77 | $8.04 | — | open until 2026-10-29 | |
| 2026-10-27 | AVAX | 7d | $7.79 | $10.06 | $7.48 | — | open until 2026-11-02 | |
| 2026-10-27 | AVAX | 24h | $8.53 | $9.43 | $8.44 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-27 | BNB | 7d | $680 | $791 | $603 | — | open until 2026-11-02 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 83.2% |
| 2026-10-27 | BNB | 24h | $721 | $763 | $714 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 82.9% |
| 2026-10-27 | BNB | 3d | $703 | $776 | $658 | — | open until 2026-10-29 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 81.8% |
| 2026-10-27 | BTC | 7d | $73,422 | $86,191 | $68,005 | — | open until 2026-11-02 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.6% |
| 2026-10-27 | BTC | 3d | $75,768 | $84,128 | $73,269 | — | open until 2026-10-29 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.6% |
| 2026-10-27 | BTC | 24h | $77,708 | $82,517 | $76,835 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-27 | DOGE | 7d | $0.0688 | $0.0859 | $0.0687 | — | open until 2026-11-02 | |
| 2026-10-27 | DOGE | 3d | $0.0716 | $0.0837 | $0.0716 | — | open until 2026-10-29 | |
| 2026-10-27 | DOGE | 24h | $0.0742 | $0.0813 | $0.0735 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-27 | ETH | 3d | $2,148 | $2,486 | $2,078 | — | open until 2026-10-29 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.3% |
| 2026-10-27 | ETH | 7d | $2,055 | $2,559 | $1,883 | — | open until 2026-11-02 | |
| 2026-10-27 | ETH | 24h | $2,225 | $2,417 | $2,178 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-27 | LINK | 7d | $10.05 | $12.77 | $9.67 | — | open until 2026-11-02 | |
| 2026-10-27 | LINK | 24h | $10.88 | $11.95 | $10.83 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-27 | LINK | 3d | $10.49 | $12.32 | $10.30 | — | open until 2026-10-29 | |
| 2026-10-27 | SOL | 24h | $96.43 | $105 | $95.92 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.5% |
| 2026-10-27 | SOL | 3d | $92.70 | $108 | $88.46 | — | open until 2026-10-29 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.1% |
| 2026-10-27 | SOL | 7d | $88.55 | $112 | $81.94 | — | open until 2026-11-02 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.3% |
| 2026-10-27 | TRX | 24h | $0.3256 | $0.3333 | $0.3200 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 74.3% |
| 2026-10-27 | TRX | 7d | $0.3190 | $0.3391 | $0.3073 | — | open until 2026-11-02 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 70.2% |
| 2026-10-27 | TRX | 3d | $0.3226 | $0.3358 | $0.3155 | — | open until 2026-10-29 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 73.7% |
| 2026-10-27 | XRP | 7d | $1.17 | $1.46 | $1.14 | — | open until 2026-11-02 | |
| 2026-10-27 | XRP | 24h | $1.25 | $1.37 | $1.25 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-27 | XRP | 3d | $1.22 | $1.41 | $1.19 | — | open until 2026-10-29 | |
| 2026-10-26 | ADA | 3d | $0.1842 | $0.2242 | $0.1771 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | |
| 2026-10-26 | ADA | 24h | $0.1934 | $0.2156 | $0.1885 | $0.2067 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-27 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-26 | ADA | 7d | $0.1730 | $0.2318 | $0.1608 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | |
| 2026-10-26 | AVAX | 24h | $8.48 | $9.38 | $8.35 | $8.98 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-27 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-26 | AVAX | 7d | $7.75 | $10.00 | $7.58 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | |
| 2026-10-26 | AVAX | 3d | $8.13 | $9.72 | $8.16 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | |
| 2026-10-26 | BNB | 7d | $676 | $787 | $591 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 83.2% |
| 2026-10-26 | BNB | 3d | $699 | $771 | $667 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 81.8% |
| 2026-10-26 | BNB | 24h | $717 | $759 | $707 | $743 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-27 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual.Capped due to volatility · implied probability 82.9% |
| 2026-10-26 | BTC | 24h | $77,715 | $82,536 | $77,089 | $80,151 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-27 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-26 | BTC | 3d | $75,781 | $84,140 | $74,563 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.5% |
| 2026-10-26 | BTC | 7d | $73,437 | $86,206 | $68,605 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.5% |
| 2026-10-26 | DOGE | 3d | $0.0708 | $0.0828 | $0.0703 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | |
| 2026-10-26 | DOGE | 7d | $0.0680 | $0.0850 | $0.0677 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | |
| 2026-10-26 | DOGE | 24h | $0.0734 | $0.0805 | $0.0729 | $0.0778 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-27 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-26 | ETH | 3d | $2,153 | $2,492 | $2,060 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.3% |
| 2026-10-26 | ETH | 24h | $2,230 | $2,424 | $2,227 | $2,325 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-27 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-26 | ETH | 7d | $2,060 | $2,565 | $1,870 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | |
| 2026-10-26 | LINK | 24h | $10.92 | $12.01 | $10.92 | $11.41 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-27 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-26 | LINK | 3d | $10.54 | $12.38 | $10.40 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | |
| 2026-10-26 | LINK | 7d | $10.09 | $12.83 | $9.75 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | |
| 2026-10-26 | SOL | 7d | $88.96 | $113 | $83.80 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.3% |
| 2026-10-26 | SOL | 24h | $96.86 | $106 | $96.07 | $101 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-27 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual.Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.4% |
| 2026-10-26 | SOL | 3d | $93.12 | $109 | $91.60 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.1% |
| 2026-10-26 | TRX | 7d | $0.3198 | $0.3400 | $0.3115 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 69.8% |
| 2026-10-26 | TRX | 24h | $0.3265 | $0.3342 | $0.3246 | $0.3295 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-27 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual.Capped due to volatility · implied probability 74.2% |
| 2026-10-26 | TRX | 3d | $0.3234 | $0.3366 | $0.3203 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 73.2% |
| 2026-10-26 | XRP | 24h | $1.24 | $1.35 | $1.24 | $1.31 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-27 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-26 | XRP | 3d | $1.20 | $1.39 | $1.19 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | |
| 2026-10-26 | XRP | 7d | $1.16 | $1.44 | $1.13 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | |
| 2026-10-25 | ADA | 3d | $0.1871 | $0.2305 | $0.1805 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-25 | ADA | 7d | $0.1694 | $0.2452 | $0.1586 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | |
| 2026-10-25 | ADA | 24h | $0.1975 | $0.2202 | $0.1956 | $0.2042 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-25 | AVAX | 3d | $8.25 | $9.78 | $8.05 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-25 | AVAX | 7d | $7.78 | $10.20 | $7.50 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | |
| 2026-10-25 | AVAX | 24h | $8.60 | $9.40 | $8.46 | $8.93 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-25 | BNB | 7d | $669 | $793 | $601 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | |
| 2026-10-25 | BNB | 24h | $720 | $759 | $711 | $739 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-25 | BNB | 3d | $700 | $772 | $656 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-25 | BTC | 3d | $75,402 | $85,996 | $73,923 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-25 | BTC | 7d | $71,210 | $89,705 | $68,588 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | |
| 2026-10-25 | BTC | 24h | $78,056 | $83,702 | $77,563 | $80,154 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-25 | DOGE | 7d | $0.0688 | $0.0866 | $0.0686 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | |
| 2026-10-25 | DOGE | 3d | $0.0720 | $0.0836 | $0.0714 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-25 | DOGE | 24h | $0.0745 | $0.0809 | $0.0734 | $0.0769 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-25 | ETH | 3d | $2,179 | $2,528 | $2,107 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-25 | ETH | 24h | $2,268 | $2,446 | $2,210 | $2,330 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-25 | ETH | 7d | $2,089 | $2,598 | $1,909 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | |
| 2026-10-25 | LINK | 3d | $10.74 | $12.54 | $10.50 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-25 | LINK | 7d | $10.17 | $13.12 | $9.86 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | |
| 2026-10-25 | LINK | 24h | $11.17 | $12.11 | $11.04 | $11.46 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-25 | SOL | 3d | $93.25 | $111 | $89.68 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-25 | SOL | 7d | $86.48 | $117 | $83.03 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | |
| 2026-10-25 | SOL | 24h | $97.97 | $107 | $97.27 | $101 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-25 | TRX | 24h | $0.3248 | $0.3335 | $0.3197 | $0.3304 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-25 | TRX | 3d | $0.3206 | $0.3364 | $0.3146 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-25 | TRX | 7d | $0.3149 | $0.3416 | $0.3067 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | |
| 2026-10-25 | XRP | 7d | $1.16 | $1.47 | $1.13 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | |
| 2026-10-25 | XRP | 3d | $1.20 | $1.41 | $1.19 | — | open until 2026-10-27 | |
| 2026-10-25 | XRP | 24h | $1.25 | $1.35 | $1.24 | $1.30 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
Event probabilities (2160)
2160 / 2160
rows / distinct keys consistent
90
event groups (asset × horizon × date; correlated)
0.075
Informative Brier · 10–90% (n=164)
0.026
All-event Brier (n=480) · max 100.0%
| Date | Observation | Model | 180d base rate | Lift (pp) | Informative (10–90%) | Outcome | Payload hash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-26 | AVAX · close beyond ±3% · 24h | 33.4% | 28.0% | 5.3 | yes | not occurred | e56acb6f68 |
| 2026-10-26 | AVAX · close beyond ±8% · 24h | 4.5% | 3.9% | 0.7 | — | not occurred | 36abd0af5c |
| 2026-10-26 | ETH · close within ±2% · 7d | 29.5% | 35.2% | -5.7 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 4cfcb1b680 |
| 2026-10-26 | ETH · close beyond ±15% · 3d | 2.1% | 2.2% | -0.1 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | 8c063cde35 |
| 2026-10-26 | ETH · close beyond ±10% · 3d | 7.7% | 5.0% | 2.8 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | 395bb9b44e |
| 2026-10-26 | ETH · close beyond ±8% · 3d | 13.1% | 8.8% | 4.3 | yes | open until 2026-10-28 | fbd882dd3d |
| 2026-10-26 | LINK · close beyond ±5% · 7d | 50.6% | 57.1% | -6.5 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | e35014548b |
| 2026-10-26 | LINK · close beyond ±8% · 7d | 30.6% | 36.3% | -5.6 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 5e0a686143 |
| 2026-10-26 | LINK · close beyond ±10% · 7d | 21.5% | 24.2% | -2.7 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 4684d42455 |
| 2026-10-26 | LINK · close beyond ±15% · 7d | 8.4% | 9.3% | -0.9 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | 8a2ac4a2c8 |
| 2026-10-26 | AVAX · close within ±2% · 3d | 30.3% | 37.9% | -7.6 | yes | open until 2026-10-28 | 8c8bf994f2 |
| 2026-10-26 | AVAX · close within ±3% · 3d | 43.2% | 53.3% | -10.1 | yes | open until 2026-10-28 | a1bc9482f6 |
| 2026-10-26 | AVAX · close within ±5% · 3d | 63.2% | 70.3% | -7.1 | yes | open until 2026-10-28 | 84b362a12b |
| 2026-10-26 | ETH · close beyond ±5% · 3d | 28.6% | 17.0% | 11.5 | yes | open until 2026-10-28 | a5c4d72bd9 |
| 2026-10-26 | AVAX · close beyond ±15% · 24h | 0.5% | 1.1% | -0.6 | — | not occurred | e6e3e83154 |
| 2026-10-26 | ETH · close beyond ±3% · 3d | 47.7% | 35.7% | 12.0 | yes | open until 2026-10-28 | 119ce83988 |
| 2026-10-26 | AVAX · close decline ≤2% · 3d | 59.5% | 66.5% | -7.0 | yes | open until 2026-10-28 | c859a58796 |
| 2026-10-26 | ETH · close beyond ±15% · 24h | 0.5% | 1.1% | -0.6 | — | not occurred | 9b02a83365 |
| 2026-10-26 | ETH · close beyond ±10% · 24h | 1.3% | 1.7% | -0.4 | — | not occurred | 7482b9633d |
| 2026-10-26 | ETH · close beyond ±8% · 24h | 2.9% | 2.2% | 0.7 | — | not occurred | fe983ef1bd |
| 2026-10-26 | ETH · close beyond ±5% · 24h | 10.5% | 5.0% | 5.5 | yes | not occurred | de6af67937 |
| 2026-10-26 | ETH · close beyond ±3% · 24h | 25.0% | 15.9% | 9.0 | yes | not occurred | 1560d9ca62 |
| 2026-10-26 | ETH · close beyond ±2% · 24h | 38.9% | 31.3% | 7.6 | yes | not occurred | 6910a0d909 |
| 2026-10-26 | AVAX · close beyond ±5% · 3d | 36.8% | 29.7% | 7.1 | yes | open until 2026-10-28 | 9899fc4132 |
| 2026-10-26 | AVAX · close beyond ±8% · 3d | 18.5% | 13.7% | 4.8 | yes | open until 2026-10-28 | a3e9557346 |
| 2026-10-26 | AVAX · close beyond ±10% · 3d | 11.5% | 8.8% | 2.7 | yes | open until 2026-10-28 | 8086e26a11 |
| 2026-10-26 | AVAX · close beyond ±15% · 3d | 3.5% | 3.9% | -0.3 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | 92a214693b |
| 2026-10-26 | AVAX · close within ±2% · 7d | 24.3% | 22.5% | 1.7 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 2ab847ca4e |
| 2026-10-26 | AVAX · close within ±3% · 7d | 34.3% | 34.6% | -0.3 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 5764a55e8d |
| 2026-10-26 | AVAX · close within ±5% · 7d | 50.9% | 56.0% | -5.1 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | f8b198ecf2 |
| 2026-10-26 | ETH · close within ±3% · 3d | 52.3% | 64.3% | -12.0 | yes | open until 2026-10-28 | 681cf65e94 |
| 2026-10-26 | AVAX · close decline ≤2% · 7d | 54.0% | 53.8% | 0.1 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 2c6b1732f2 |
| 2026-10-26 | AVAX · close decline ≤3% · 7d | 59.7% | 62.6% | -2.9 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 95f5cda3f7 |
| 2026-10-26 | ETH · close within ±2% · 3d | 38.6% | 44.0% | -5.3 | yes | open until 2026-10-28 | de2522ca36 |
| 2026-10-26 | BTC · close beyond ±15% · 7d | 2.5% | 5.0% | -2.4 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | 5e72076be5 |
| 2026-10-26 | BTC · close beyond ±10% · 7d | 9.3% | 10.4% | -1.2 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | ef3ad22963 |
| 2026-10-26 | BTC · close beyond ±8% · 7d | 15.4% | 12.1% | 3.3 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 2db73c240b |
| 2026-10-26 | BTC · close beyond ±5% · 7d | 32.3% | 24.7% | 7.6 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 92981f36ea |
| 2026-10-26 | BTC · close beyond ±3% · 7d | 52.1% | 46.7% | 5.4 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 33cf6728ec |
| 2026-10-26 | BTC · close within ±3% · 7d | 47.9% | 53.3% | -5.4 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | b40423af10 |
| 2026-10-26 | AVAX · close beyond ±8% · 7d | 31.2% | 28.6% | 2.6 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 8321d66a4b |
| 2026-10-26 | AVAX · close beyond ±10% · 7d | 22.9% | 19.2% | 3.7 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 51e9b4117d |
| 2026-10-26 | AVAX · close beyond ±15% · 7d | 10.5% | 10.4% | 0.1 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 87e22ac971 |
| 2026-10-26 | BTC · close within ±2% · 7d | 34.4% | 35.2% | -0.8 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 8f2a598846 |
| 2026-10-26 | BTC · close beyond ±15% · 3d | 0.5% | 1.1% | -0.6 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | 2ffee94937 |
| 2026-10-26 | BTC · close beyond ±10% · 3d | 2.0% | 3.9% | -1.8 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | 42f4e5680d |
| 2026-10-26 | BTC · close beyond ±8% · 3d | 4.9% | 5.0% | -0.1 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | 6ca186356c |
| 2026-10-26 | BTC · close beyond ±5% · 3d | 17.0% | 11.0% | 6.0 | yes | open until 2026-10-28 | fffaab4985 |
| 2026-10-26 | BTC · close beyond ±3% · 3d | 37.1% | 25.3% | 11.9 | yes | open until 2026-10-28 | bf657a5557 |
| 2026-10-26 | BTC · close beyond ±2% · 3d | 53.5% | 46.2% | 7.3 | yes | open until 2026-10-28 | 56ce0f7112 |