Observation ledger
Every estimate, regardless of outcome. Original records cannot be modified or deleted. Payload verification compares the record with its stored digest; no independent external timestamp is provided.
Daily manifests cover records from activation. Legacy records were not chained. No independent external timestamp exists; integrity verification does not establish model accuracy.
Price-level ledger
Persisted bounds and reference stops are evaluated against the target daily close. C+cap targets 85% before capping; final implied probabilities are recorded per observation. Legacy base-policy records use a separate 90% target. Stop events measure closing prices, not intraday execution.
100%
inside
0.0%
close below stop
40
resolved
| Issued UTC | Asset | Horizon | Lower bound | Upper bound | Stop | Close | Outcome | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-28 | ADA | 7d | $0.1745 | $0.2339 | $0.1623 | — | open until 2026-11-03 | |
| 2026-10-28 | ADA | 3d | $0.1858 | $0.2261 | $0.1787 | — | open until 2026-10-30 | |
| 2026-10-28 | ADA | 24h | $0.1951 | $0.2174 | $0.1901 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | |
| 2026-10-28 | AVAX | 24h | $8.51 | $9.41 | $8.37 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | |
| 2026-10-28 | AVAX | 7d | $7.78 | $10.04 | $7.62 | — | open until 2026-11-03 | |
| 2026-10-28 | AVAX | 3d | $8.16 | $9.75 | $8.18 | — | open until 2026-10-30 | |
| 2026-10-28 | BNB | 7d | $681 | $793 | $596 | — | open until 2026-11-03 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 83.3% |
| 2026-10-28 | BNB | 3d | $705 | $778 | $672 | — | open until 2026-10-30 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 81.9% |
| 2026-10-28 | BNB | 24h | $723 | $765 | $713 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 82.9% |
| 2026-10-28 | BTC | 24h | $78,442 | $83,300 | $77,787 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | |
| 2026-10-28 | BTC | 7d | $74,110 | $87,008 | $69,292 | — | open until 2026-11-03 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.6% |
| 2026-10-28 | BTC | 3d | $76,480 | $84,923 | $75,274 | — | open until 2026-10-30 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.6% |
| 2026-10-28 | DOGE | 7d | $0.0699 | $0.0873 | $0.0696 | — | open until 2026-11-03 | |
| 2026-10-28 | DOGE | 3d | $0.0728 | $0.0851 | $0.0722 | — | open until 2026-10-30 | |
| 2026-10-28 | DOGE | 24h | $0.0755 | $0.0827 | $0.0750 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | |
| 2026-10-28 | ETH | 7d | $2,078 | $2,587 | $1,888 | — | open until 2026-11-03 | |
| 2026-10-28 | ETH | 3d | $2,172 | $2,513 | $2,078 | — | open until 2026-10-30 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.4% |
| 2026-10-28 | ETH | 24h | $2,250 | $2,444 | $2,246 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | |
| 2026-10-28 | LINK | 7d | $10.20 | $12.97 | $9.86 | — | open until 2026-11-03 | |
| 2026-10-28 | LINK | 3d | $10.66 | $12.51 | $10.51 | — | open until 2026-10-30 | |
| 2026-10-28 | LINK | 24h | $11.05 | $12.14 | $11.04 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | |
| 2026-10-28 | SOL | 7d | $88.89 | $113 | $83.81 | — | open until 2026-11-03 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.3% |
| 2026-10-28 | SOL | 3d | $93.07 | $109 | $91.58 | — | open until 2026-10-30 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.1% |
| 2026-10-28 | SOL | 24h | $96.80 | $106 | $96.02 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.5% |
| 2026-10-28 | TRX | 7d | $0.3210 | $0.3413 | $0.3130 | — | open until 2026-11-03 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 70.8% |
| 2026-10-28 | TRX | 3d | $0.3245 | $0.3378 | $0.3215 | — | open until 2026-10-30 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 73.9% |
| 2026-10-28 | TRX | 24h | $0.3276 | $0.3353 | $0.3256 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 74.4% |
| 2026-10-28 | XRP | 7d | $1.19 | $1.48 | $1.16 | — | open until 2026-11-03 | |
| 2026-10-28 | XRP | 3d | $1.24 | $1.43 | $1.22 | — | open until 2026-10-30 | |
| 2026-10-28 | XRP | 24h | $1.28 | $1.39 | $1.27 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | |
| 2026-10-27 | ADA | 24h | $0.1958 | $0.2181 | $0.1942 | $0.2060 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-28 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-27 | ADA | 3d | $0.1865 | $0.2268 | $0.1793 | — | open until 2026-10-29 | |
| 2026-10-27 | ADA | 7d | $0.1751 | $0.2347 | $0.1575 | — | open until 2026-11-02 | |
| 2026-10-27 | AVAX | 24h | $8.53 | $9.43 | $8.44 | $8.96 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-28 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-27 | AVAX | 3d | $8.18 | $9.77 | $8.04 | — | open until 2026-10-29 | |
| 2026-10-27 | AVAX | 7d | $7.79 | $10.06 | $7.48 | — | open until 2026-11-02 | |
| 2026-10-27 | BNB | 3d | $703 | $776 | $658 | — | open until 2026-10-29 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 81.8% |
| 2026-10-27 | BNB | 7d | $680 | $791 | $603 | — | open until 2026-11-02 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 83.2% |
| 2026-10-27 | BNB | 24h | $721 | $763 | $714 | $745 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-28 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual.Capped due to volatility · implied probability 82.9% |
| 2026-10-27 | BTC | 7d | $73,422 | $86,191 | $68,005 | — | open until 2026-11-02 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.6% |
| 2026-10-27 | BTC | 3d | $75,768 | $84,128 | $73,269 | — | open until 2026-10-29 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.6% |
| 2026-10-27 | BTC | 24h | $77,708 | $82,517 | $76,835 | $80,910 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-28 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-27 | DOGE | 24h | $0.0742 | $0.0813 | $0.0735 | $0.0791 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-28 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-27 | DOGE | 7d | $0.0688 | $0.0859 | $0.0687 | — | open until 2026-11-02 | |
| 2026-10-27 | DOGE | 3d | $0.0716 | $0.0837 | $0.0716 | — | open until 2026-10-29 | |
| 2026-10-27 | ETH | 7d | $2,055 | $2,559 | $1,883 | — | open until 2026-11-02 | |
| 2026-10-27 | ETH | 3d | $2,148 | $2,486 | $2,078 | — | open until 2026-10-29 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.3% |
| 2026-10-27 | ETH | 24h | $2,225 | $2,417 | $2,178 | $2,350 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-28 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-27 | LINK | 7d | $10.05 | $12.77 | $9.67 | — | open until 2026-11-02 | |
| 2026-10-27 | LINK | 3d | $10.49 | $12.32 | $10.30 | — | open until 2026-10-29 | |
| 2026-10-27 | LINK | 24h | $10.88 | $11.95 | $10.83 | $11.58 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-28 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-27 | SOL | 7d | $88.55 | $112 | $81.94 | — | open until 2026-11-02 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.3% |
| 2026-10-27 | SOL | 3d | $92.70 | $108 | $88.46 | — | open until 2026-10-29 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.1% |
| 2026-10-27 | SOL | 24h | $96.43 | $105 | $95.92 | $101 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-28 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual.Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.5% |
| 2026-10-27 | TRX | 3d | $0.3226 | $0.3358 | $0.3155 | — | open until 2026-10-29 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 73.7% |
| 2026-10-27 | TRX | 24h | $0.3256 | $0.3333 | $0.3200 | $0.3315 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-28 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual.Capped due to volatility · implied probability 74.3% |
| 2026-10-27 | TRX | 7d | $0.3190 | $0.3391 | $0.3073 | — | open until 2026-11-02 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 70.2% |
| 2026-10-27 | XRP | 24h | $1.25 | $1.37 | $1.25 | $1.33 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-28 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-27 | XRP | 3d | $1.22 | $1.41 | $1.19 | — | open until 2026-10-29 | |
| 2026-10-27 | XRP | 7d | $1.17 | $1.46 | $1.14 | — | open until 2026-11-02 | |
| 2026-10-26 | ADA | 24h | $0.1934 | $0.2156 | $0.1885 | $0.2067 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-27 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-26 | ADA | 3d | $0.1842 | $0.2242 | $0.1771 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | |
| 2026-10-26 | ADA | 7d | $0.1730 | $0.2318 | $0.1608 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | |
| 2026-10-26 | AVAX | 7d | $7.75 | $10.00 | $7.58 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | |
| 2026-10-26 | AVAX | 24h | $8.48 | $9.38 | $8.35 | $8.98 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-27 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-26 | AVAX | 3d | $8.13 | $9.72 | $8.16 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | |
| 2026-10-26 | BNB | 3d | $699 | $771 | $667 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 81.8% |
| 2026-10-26 | BNB | 24h | $717 | $759 | $707 | $743 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-27 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual.Capped due to volatility · implied probability 82.9% |
| 2026-10-26 | BNB | 7d | $676 | $787 | $591 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 83.2% |
| 2026-10-26 | BTC | 3d | $75,781 | $84,140 | $74,563 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.5% |
| 2026-10-26 | BTC | 24h | $77,715 | $82,536 | $77,089 | $80,151 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-27 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-26 | BTC | 7d | $73,437 | $86,206 | $68,605 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.5% |
| 2026-10-26 | DOGE | 7d | $0.0680 | $0.0850 | $0.0677 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | |
| 2026-10-26 | DOGE | 3d | $0.0708 | $0.0828 | $0.0703 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | |
| 2026-10-26 | DOGE | 24h | $0.0734 | $0.0805 | $0.0729 | $0.0778 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-27 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-26 | ETH | 24h | $2,230 | $2,424 | $2,227 | $2,325 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-27 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-26 | ETH | 3d | $2,153 | $2,492 | $2,060 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.3% |
| 2026-10-26 | ETH | 7d | $2,060 | $2,565 | $1,870 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | |
| 2026-10-26 | LINK | 7d | $10.09 | $12.83 | $9.75 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | |
| 2026-10-26 | LINK | 24h | $10.92 | $12.01 | $10.92 | $11.41 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-27 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-26 | LINK | 3d | $10.54 | $12.38 | $10.40 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | |
| 2026-10-26 | SOL | 24h | $96.86 | $106 | $96.07 | $101 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-27 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual.Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.4% |
| 2026-10-26 | SOL | 3d | $93.12 | $109 | $91.60 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.1% |
| 2026-10-26 | SOL | 7d | $88.96 | $113 | $83.80 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.3% |
| 2026-10-26 | TRX | 24h | $0.3265 | $0.3342 | $0.3246 | $0.3295 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-27 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual.Capped due to volatility · implied probability 74.2% |
| 2026-10-26 | TRX | 3d | $0.3234 | $0.3366 | $0.3203 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 73.2% |
| 2026-10-26 | TRX | 7d | $0.3198 | $0.3400 | $0.3115 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 69.8% |
| 2026-10-26 | XRP | 24h | $1.24 | $1.35 | $1.24 | $1.31 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-27 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-26 | XRP | 7d | $1.16 | $1.44 | $1.13 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | |
| 2026-10-26 | XRP | 3d | $1.20 | $1.39 | $1.19 | — | open until 2026-10-28 |
Event probabilities (1920)filtered view · clear
2880 / 2880
rows / distinct keys consistent
120
event groups (asset × horizon × date; correlated)
0.098
Informative Brier · 10–90% (n=377)
0.039
All-event Brier (n=960) · max 100.0%
| Date | Observation | Model | 180d base rate | Lift (pp) | Informative (10–90%) | Outcome | Payload hash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-26 | BNB · close within ±2% · 3d | 48.5% | 54.9% | -6.5 | yes | open until 2026-10-28 | 9e59edbb31 |
| 2026-10-26 | ETH · close beyond ±15% · 7d | 7.3% | 6.6% | 0.7 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | 3b72aff5a4 |
| 2026-10-26 | ETH · close beyond ±10% · 7d | 17.5% | 14.8% | 2.7 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 4fb3e67726 |
| 2026-10-26 | ETH · close beyond ±8% · 7d | 24.8% | 20.3% | 4.5 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | ca9f223656 |
| 2026-10-26 | ETH · close beyond ±5% · 7d | 41.8% | 36.3% | 5.6 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | b896237aa1 |
| 2026-10-26 | ETH · close decline ≤2% · 7d | 61.6% | 66.5% | -4.9 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | ace6facd5c |
| 2026-10-26 | ETH · close within ±5% · 7d | 58.2% | 63.7% | -5.5 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 18e10545d7 |
| 2026-10-26 | ETH · close within ±3% · 7d | 40.8% | 48.4% | -7.6 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 14ec5774ba |
| 2026-10-26 | ETH · close within ±2% · 7d | 29.5% | 35.2% | -5.7 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 4cfcb1b680 |
| 2026-10-26 | ETH · close beyond ±15% · 3d | 2.1% | 2.2% | -0.1 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | 8c063cde35 |
| 2026-10-26 | ETH · close beyond ±10% · 3d | 7.7% | 5.0% | 2.8 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | 395bb9b44e |
| 2026-10-26 | ETH · close beyond ±8% · 3d | 13.1% | 8.8% | 4.3 | yes | open until 2026-10-28 | fbd882dd3d |
| 2026-10-26 | ETH · close beyond ±5% · 3d | 28.6% | 17.0% | 11.5 | yes | open until 2026-10-28 | a5c4d72bd9 |
| 2026-10-26 | ETH · close beyond ±3% · 3d | 47.7% | 35.7% | 12.0 | yes | open until 2026-10-28 | 119ce83988 |
| 2026-10-26 | ETH · close within ±3% · 3d | 52.3% | 64.3% | -12.0 | yes | open until 2026-10-28 | 681cf65e94 |
| 2026-10-26 | ETH · close within ±2% · 3d | 38.6% | 44.0% | -5.3 | yes | open until 2026-10-28 | de2522ca36 |
| 2026-10-26 | BTC · close beyond ±15% · 7d | 2.5% | 5.0% | -2.4 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | 5e72076be5 |
| 2026-10-26 | BTC · close beyond ±10% · 7d | 9.3% | 10.4% | -1.2 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | ef3ad22963 |
| 2026-10-26 | BTC · close beyond ±8% · 7d | 15.4% | 12.1% | 3.3 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 2db73c240b |
| 2026-10-26 | BTC · close beyond ±5% · 7d | 32.3% | 24.7% | 7.6 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 92981f36ea |
| 2026-10-26 | BTC · close beyond ±3% · 7d | 52.1% | 46.7% | 5.4 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 33cf6728ec |
| 2026-10-26 | BTC · close within ±3% · 7d | 47.9% | 53.3% | -5.4 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | b40423af10 |
| 2026-10-26 | BTC · close within ±2% · 7d | 34.4% | 35.2% | -0.8 | yes | open until 2026-11-01 | 8f2a598846 |
| 2026-10-26 | BTC · close beyond ±15% · 3d | 0.5% | 1.1% | -0.6 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | 2ffee94937 |
| 2026-10-26 | BTC · close beyond ±10% · 3d | 2.0% | 3.9% | -1.8 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | 42f4e5680d |
| 2026-10-26 | BTC · close beyond ±8% · 3d | 4.9% | 5.0% | -0.1 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | 6ca186356c |
| 2026-10-26 | BTC · close beyond ±5% · 3d | 17.0% | 11.0% | 6.0 | yes | open until 2026-10-28 | fffaab4985 |
| 2026-10-26 | BTC · close beyond ±3% · 3d | 37.1% | 25.3% | 11.9 | yes | open until 2026-10-28 | bf657a5557 |
| 2026-10-26 | BTC · close beyond ±2% · 3d | 53.5% | 46.2% | 7.3 | yes | open until 2026-10-28 | 56ce0f7112 |
| 2026-10-26 | BTC · close within ±2% · 3d | 46.5% | 53.8% | -7.3 | yes | open until 2026-10-28 | 51d9005286 |
| 2026-10-25 | TRX · close increase ≤15% · 7d | 100.0% | 96.9% | 3.1 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | 6a9a3ccbdf |
| 2026-10-25 | TRX · close decline ≤15% · 7d | 100.0% | 96.9% | 3.1 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | 253aaae1ca |
| 2026-10-25 | TRX · close within ±15% · 7d | 100.0% | 96.9% | 3.1 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | 302dd03d59 |
| 2026-10-25 | TRX · close increase ≤10% · 7d | 100.0% | 96.9% | 3.1 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | bf1d85ae35 |
| 2026-10-25 | TRX · close decline ≤10% · 7d | 99.5% | 96.9% | 2.6 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | f80cb223a9 |
| 2026-10-25 | TRX · close within ±10% · 7d | 99.5% | 96.9% | 2.6 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | 9669708dd4 |
| 2026-10-25 | BNB · close increase ≤15% · 7d | 99.5% | 96.9% | 2.6 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | b6a28e2909 |
| 2026-10-25 | TRX · close increase ≤8% · 7d | 99.7% | 96.9% | 2.8 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | 218099322d |
| 2026-10-25 | BTC · close increase ≤15% · 7d | 98.9% | 96.9% | 2.0 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | 2f0a356e38 |
| 2026-10-25 | BTC · close decline ≤10% · 7d | 94.8% | 96.9% | -2.1 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | 7eb58305e2 |
| 2026-10-25 | BNB · close within ±15% · 7d | 97.5% | 96.9% | 0.6 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | 35cc249cbe |
| 2026-10-25 | SOL · close decline ≤15% · 7d | 95.1% | 96.9% | -1.8 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | a753bfc2d6 |
| 2026-10-25 | BTC · close decline ≤15% · 7d | 98.5% | 96.9% | 1.7 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | f1cb71c628 |
| 2026-10-25 | BNB · close decline ≤10% · 7d | 94.0% | 96.9% | -2.9 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | 5acc72486f |
| 2026-10-25 | BNB · close decline ≤15% · 7d | 98.0% | 96.9% | 1.1 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | 5719ab6d50 |
| 2026-10-25 | BTC · close within ±15% · 7d | 97.5% | 96.9% | 0.6 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | a648a4267f |
| 2026-10-25 | XRP · close increase ≤15% · 7d | 95.2% | 96.9% | -1.7 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | 7f2faaf550 |
| 2026-10-25 | ETH · close decline ≤15% · 7d | 95.8% | 96.9% | -1.1 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | 4fa96485ac |
| 2026-10-25 | LINK · close decline ≤15% · 7d | 96.0% | 96.9% | -0.9 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | 2bf2b084cd |
| 2026-10-25 | XRP · close decline ≤15% · 7d | 97.4% | 96.9% | 0.5 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | f901b0514a |