Observation ledger
Every estimate, regardless of outcome. Original records cannot be modified or deleted. Payload verification compares the record with its stored digest; no independent external timestamp is provided.
Daily manifests cover records from activation. Legacy records were not chained. No independent external timestamp exists; integrity verification does not establish model accuracy.
Price-level ledger
Persisted bounds and reference stops are evaluated against the target daily close. C+cap targets 85% before capping; final implied probabilities are recorded per observation. Legacy base-policy records use a separate 90% target. Stop events measure closing prices, not intraday execution.
100%
inside
0.0%
close below stop
40
resolved
| Issued UTC | Asset | Horizon | Lower bound | Upper bound | Stop | Close | Outcome | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-28 | ADA | 7d | $0.1745 | $0.2339 | $0.1623 | — | open until 2026-11-03 | |
| 2026-10-28 | ADA | 3d | $0.1858 | $0.2261 | $0.1787 | — | open until 2026-10-30 | |
| 2026-10-28 | ADA | 24h | $0.1951 | $0.2174 | $0.1901 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | |
| 2026-10-28 | AVAX | 24h | $8.51 | $9.41 | $8.37 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | |
| 2026-10-28 | AVAX | 7d | $7.78 | $10.04 | $7.62 | — | open until 2026-11-03 | |
| 2026-10-28 | AVAX | 3d | $8.16 | $9.75 | $8.18 | — | open until 2026-10-30 | |
| 2026-10-28 | BNB | 7d | $681 | $793 | $596 | — | open until 2026-11-03 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 83.3% |
| 2026-10-28 | BNB | 3d | $705 | $778 | $672 | — | open until 2026-10-30 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 81.9% |
| 2026-10-28 | BNB | 24h | $723 | $765 | $713 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 82.9% |
| 2026-10-28 | BTC | 24h | $78,442 | $83,300 | $77,787 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | |
| 2026-10-28 | BTC | 7d | $74,110 | $87,008 | $69,292 | — | open until 2026-11-03 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.6% |
| 2026-10-28 | BTC | 3d | $76,480 | $84,923 | $75,274 | — | open until 2026-10-30 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.6% |
| 2026-10-28 | DOGE | 7d | $0.0699 | $0.0873 | $0.0696 | — | open until 2026-11-03 | |
| 2026-10-28 | DOGE | 3d | $0.0728 | $0.0851 | $0.0722 | — | open until 2026-10-30 | |
| 2026-10-28 | DOGE | 24h | $0.0755 | $0.0827 | $0.0750 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | |
| 2026-10-28 | ETH | 7d | $2,078 | $2,587 | $1,888 | — | open until 2026-11-03 | |
| 2026-10-28 | ETH | 3d | $2,172 | $2,513 | $2,078 | — | open until 2026-10-30 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.4% |
| 2026-10-28 | ETH | 24h | $2,250 | $2,444 | $2,246 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | |
| 2026-10-28 | LINK | 7d | $10.20 | $12.97 | $9.86 | — | open until 2026-11-03 | |
| 2026-10-28 | LINK | 3d | $10.66 | $12.51 | $10.51 | — | open until 2026-10-30 | |
| 2026-10-28 | LINK | 24h | $11.05 | $12.14 | $11.04 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | |
| 2026-10-28 | SOL | 7d | $88.89 | $113 | $83.81 | — | open until 2026-11-03 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.3% |
| 2026-10-28 | SOL | 3d | $93.07 | $109 | $91.58 | — | open until 2026-10-30 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.1% |
| 2026-10-28 | SOL | 24h | $96.80 | $106 | $96.02 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.5% |
| 2026-10-28 | TRX | 7d | $0.3210 | $0.3413 | $0.3130 | — | open until 2026-11-03 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 70.8% |
| 2026-10-28 | TRX | 3d | $0.3245 | $0.3378 | $0.3215 | — | open until 2026-10-30 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 73.9% |
| 2026-10-28 | TRX | 24h | $0.3276 | $0.3353 | $0.3256 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 74.4% |
| 2026-10-28 | XRP | 7d | $1.19 | $1.48 | $1.16 | — | open until 2026-11-03 | |
| 2026-10-28 | XRP | 3d | $1.24 | $1.43 | $1.22 | — | open until 2026-10-30 | |
| 2026-10-28 | XRP | 24h | $1.28 | $1.39 | $1.27 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | |
| 2026-10-27 | ADA | 24h | $0.1958 | $0.2181 | $0.1942 | $0.2060 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-28 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-27 | ADA | 3d | $0.1865 | $0.2268 | $0.1793 | — | open until 2026-10-29 | |
| 2026-10-27 | ADA | 7d | $0.1751 | $0.2347 | $0.1575 | — | open until 2026-11-02 | |
| 2026-10-27 | AVAX | 24h | $8.53 | $9.43 | $8.44 | $8.96 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-28 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-27 | AVAX | 3d | $8.18 | $9.77 | $8.04 | — | open until 2026-10-29 | |
| 2026-10-27 | AVAX | 7d | $7.79 | $10.06 | $7.48 | — | open until 2026-11-02 | |
| 2026-10-27 | BNB | 3d | $703 | $776 | $658 | — | open until 2026-10-29 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 81.8% |
| 2026-10-27 | BNB | 7d | $680 | $791 | $603 | — | open until 2026-11-02 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 83.2% |
| 2026-10-27 | BNB | 24h | $721 | $763 | $714 | $745 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-28 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual.Capped due to volatility · implied probability 82.9% |
| 2026-10-27 | BTC | 7d | $73,422 | $86,191 | $68,005 | — | open until 2026-11-02 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.6% |
| 2026-10-27 | BTC | 3d | $75,768 | $84,128 | $73,269 | — | open until 2026-10-29 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.6% |
| 2026-10-27 | BTC | 24h | $77,708 | $82,517 | $76,835 | $80,910 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-28 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-27 | DOGE | 24h | $0.0742 | $0.0813 | $0.0735 | $0.0791 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-28 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-27 | DOGE | 7d | $0.0688 | $0.0859 | $0.0687 | — | open until 2026-11-02 | |
| 2026-10-27 | DOGE | 3d | $0.0716 | $0.0837 | $0.0716 | — | open until 2026-10-29 | |
| 2026-10-27 | ETH | 7d | $2,055 | $2,559 | $1,883 | — | open until 2026-11-02 | |
| 2026-10-27 | ETH | 3d | $2,148 | $2,486 | $2,078 | — | open until 2026-10-29 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.3% |
| 2026-10-27 | ETH | 24h | $2,225 | $2,417 | $2,178 | $2,350 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-28 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-27 | LINK | 7d | $10.05 | $12.77 | $9.67 | — | open until 2026-11-02 | |
| 2026-10-27 | LINK | 3d | $10.49 | $12.32 | $10.30 | — | open until 2026-10-29 | |
| 2026-10-27 | LINK | 24h | $10.88 | $11.95 | $10.83 | $11.58 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-28 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-27 | SOL | 7d | $88.55 | $112 | $81.94 | — | open until 2026-11-02 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.3% |
| 2026-10-27 | SOL | 3d | $92.70 | $108 | $88.46 | — | open until 2026-10-29 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.1% |
| 2026-10-27 | SOL | 24h | $96.43 | $105 | $95.92 | $101 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-28 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual.Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.5% |
| 2026-10-27 | TRX | 3d | $0.3226 | $0.3358 | $0.3155 | — | open until 2026-10-29 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 73.7% |
| 2026-10-27 | TRX | 24h | $0.3256 | $0.3333 | $0.3200 | $0.3315 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-28 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual.Capped due to volatility · implied probability 74.3% |
| 2026-10-27 | TRX | 7d | $0.3190 | $0.3391 | $0.3073 | — | open until 2026-11-02 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 70.2% |
| 2026-10-27 | XRP | 24h | $1.25 | $1.37 | $1.25 | $1.33 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-28 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-27 | XRP | 3d | $1.22 | $1.41 | $1.19 | — | open until 2026-10-29 | |
| 2026-10-27 | XRP | 7d | $1.17 | $1.46 | $1.14 | — | open until 2026-11-02 | |
| 2026-10-26 | ADA | 24h | $0.1934 | $0.2156 | $0.1885 | $0.2067 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-27 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-26 | ADA | 3d | $0.1842 | $0.2242 | $0.1771 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | |
| 2026-10-26 | ADA | 7d | $0.1730 | $0.2318 | $0.1608 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | |
| 2026-10-26 | AVAX | 7d | $7.75 | $10.00 | $7.58 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | |
| 2026-10-26 | AVAX | 24h | $8.48 | $9.38 | $8.35 | $8.98 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-27 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-26 | AVAX | 3d | $8.13 | $9.72 | $8.16 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | |
| 2026-10-26 | BNB | 3d | $699 | $771 | $667 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 81.8% |
| 2026-10-26 | BNB | 24h | $717 | $759 | $707 | $743 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-27 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual.Capped due to volatility · implied probability 82.9% |
| 2026-10-26 | BNB | 7d | $676 | $787 | $591 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 83.2% |
| 2026-10-26 | BTC | 3d | $75,781 | $84,140 | $74,563 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.5% |
| 2026-10-26 | BTC | 24h | $77,715 | $82,536 | $77,089 | $80,151 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-27 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-26 | BTC | 7d | $73,437 | $86,206 | $68,605 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.5% |
| 2026-10-26 | DOGE | 7d | $0.0680 | $0.0850 | $0.0677 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | |
| 2026-10-26 | DOGE | 3d | $0.0708 | $0.0828 | $0.0703 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | |
| 2026-10-26 | DOGE | 24h | $0.0734 | $0.0805 | $0.0729 | $0.0778 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-27 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-26 | ETH | 24h | $2,230 | $2,424 | $2,227 | $2,325 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-27 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-26 | ETH | 3d | $2,153 | $2,492 | $2,060 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.3% |
| 2026-10-26 | ETH | 7d | $2,060 | $2,565 | $1,870 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | |
| 2026-10-26 | LINK | 7d | $10.09 | $12.83 | $9.75 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | |
| 2026-10-26 | LINK | 24h | $10.92 | $12.01 | $10.92 | $11.41 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-27 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-26 | LINK | 3d | $10.54 | $12.38 | $10.40 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | |
| 2026-10-26 | SOL | 24h | $96.86 | $106 | $96.07 | $101 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-27 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual.Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.4% |
| 2026-10-26 | SOL | 3d | $93.12 | $109 | $91.60 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.1% |
| 2026-10-26 | SOL | 7d | $88.96 | $113 | $83.80 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 84.3% |
| 2026-10-26 | TRX | 24h | $0.3265 | $0.3342 | $0.3246 | $0.3295 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-27 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual.Capped due to volatility · implied probability 74.2% |
| 2026-10-26 | TRX | 3d | $0.3234 | $0.3366 | $0.3203 | — | open until 2026-10-28 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 73.2% |
| 2026-10-26 | TRX | 7d | $0.3198 | $0.3400 | $0.3115 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | Capped due to volatility · implied probability 69.8% |
| 2026-10-26 | XRP | 24h | $1.24 | $1.35 | $1.24 | $1.31 | inside | Compare the ledger close at 2026-10-27 00:00 UTC (daily candle close). Chart positioning is manual. |
| 2026-10-26 | XRP | 7d | $1.16 | $1.44 | $1.13 | — | open until 2026-11-01 | |
| 2026-10-26 | XRP | 3d | $1.20 | $1.39 | $1.19 | — | open until 2026-10-28 |
Event probabilities (1920)filtered view · clear
2880 / 2880
rows / distinct keys consistent
120
event groups (asset × horizon × date; correlated)
0.098
Informative Brier · 10–90% (n=377)
0.039
All-event Brier (n=960) · max 100.0%
| Date | Observation | Model | 180d base rate | Lift (pp) | Informative (10–90%) | Outcome | Payload hash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | LINK · close increase ≤3% · 7d | 68.6% | 75.0% | -6.4 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | 36300574a7 |
| 2026-10-25 | XRP · close beyond ±3% · 7d | 63.3% | 56.3% | 7.0 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | 914101134b |
| 2026-10-25 | ADA · close decline ≤5% · 7d | 63.6% | 56.3% | 7.4 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | 25b9123285 |
| 2026-10-25 | BNB · close decline ≤2% · 7d | 66.0% | 59.4% | 6.7 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | 82bb88cd8b |
| 2026-10-25 | ADA · close increase ≤2% · 7d | 68.4% | 71.9% | -3.5 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | db10d13a82 |
| 2026-10-25 | ADA · close increase ≤3% · 7d | 72.1% | 75.0% | -2.9 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | a046ad7648 |
| 2026-10-25 | SOL · close decline ≤5% · 7d | 73.4% | 68.8% | 4.6 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | d5a215b231 |
| 2026-10-25 | BTC · close beyond ±2% · 7d | 65.7% | 50.0% | 15.7 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | 3fc79b93d3 |
| 2026-10-25 | LINK · close within ±8% · 7d | 69.3% | 62.5% | 6.8 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | c98e44dced |
| 2026-10-25 | LINK · close beyond ±2% · 7d | 79.4% | 81.3% | -1.9 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | c7b29b2417 |
| 2026-10-25 | DOGE · close decline ≤5% · 7d | 68.4% | 53.1% | 15.3 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | 40ae9afb94 |
| 2026-10-25 | LINK · close decline ≤5% · 7d | 73.0% | 62.5% | 10.5 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | 0b38414da2 |
| 2026-10-25 | XRP · close within ±10% · 7d | 82.0% | 90.6% | -8.7 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | ab437d904f |
| 2026-10-25 | ETH · close decline ≤3% · 7d | 67.7% | 62.5% | 5.2 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | 819616dc69 |
| 2026-10-25 | SOL · close beyond ±2% · 7d | 75.4% | 56.3% | 19.1 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | 38804dfad3 |
| 2026-10-25 | DOGE · close within ±10% · 7d | 80.9% | 81.3% | -0.3 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | a71c45ee1c |
| 2026-10-25 | DOGE · close beyond ±2% · 7d | 77.5% | 78.1% | -0.6 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | 2f31ef1fca |
| 2026-10-25 | XRP · close within ±8% · 7d | 74.0% | 84.4% | -10.4 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | 94f16d1423 |
| 2026-10-25 | LINK · close increase ≤2% · 7d | 64.2% | 75.0% | -10.8 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | 848379efc7 |
| 2026-10-25 | AVAX · close within ±10% · 7d | 77.2% | 84.4% | -7.2 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | 1f385e3249 |
| 2026-10-25 | ADA · close within ±10% · 7d | 70.4% | 75.0% | -4.6 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | 79137c0dd0 |
| 2026-10-25 | BNB · close beyond ±2% · 7d | 64.9% | 62.5% | 2.4 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | 1fd61182b5 |
| 2026-10-25 | BNB · close increase ≤2% · 7d | 69.0% | 75.0% | -6.0 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | 7d632db000 |
| 2026-10-25 | TRX · close increase ≤2% · 7d | 72.6% | 96.9% | -24.3 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | 9b4ceeea8f |
| 2026-10-25 | LINK · close beyond ±3% · 7d | 68.9% | 81.3% | -12.4 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | 4d01aac0ee |
| 2026-10-25 | AVAX · close beyond ±2% · 7d | 75.6% | 75.0% | 0.6 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | 2751efe6d6 |
| 2026-10-25 | ETH · close within ±8% · 7d | 75.2% | 90.6% | -15.4 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | 6aa29bb1cf |
| 2026-10-25 | DOGE · close beyond ±3% · 7d | 66.8% | 65.6% | 1.2 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | 5176f578a4 |
| 2026-10-25 | AVAX · close decline ≤5% · 7d | 70.0% | 59.4% | 10.7 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | 4ceedcf8e5 |
| 2026-10-25 | ETH · close beyond ±3% · 7d | 59.2% | 40.6% | 18.5 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | 0728c559a3 |
| 2026-10-25 | AVAX · close beyond ±3% · 7d | 65.6% | 71.9% | -6.3 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | f538925ce0 |
| 2026-10-25 | AVAX · close within ±8% · 7d | 68.9% | 71.9% | -3.0 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | 173f9f854e |
| 2026-10-25 | SOL · close beyond ±3% · 7d | 64.8% | 46.9% | 17.9 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | beaaf74132 |
| 2026-10-25 | ETH · close increase ≤2% · 7d | 67.7% | 87.5% | -19.8 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | 0ec90e6c3f |
| 2026-10-25 | SOL · close increase ≤2% · 7d | 67.2% | 81.3% | -14.1 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | bb71e8f9a0 |
| 2026-10-25 | TRX · close within ±3% · 7d | 69.3% | 96.9% | -27.6 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | 779b42f572 |
| 2026-10-25 | AVAX · close beyond ±5% · 7d | 48.9% | 53.1% | -4.2 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | 4c91359346 |
| 2026-10-25 | ADA · close beyond ±8% · 7d | 39.2% | 34.4% | 4.8 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | dd36b618c5 |
| 2026-10-25 | ADA · close beyond ±10% · 7d | 29.6% | 25.0% | 4.6 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | 8271f8a115 |
| 2026-10-25 | ADA · close beyond ±15% · 7d | 14.1% | 6.3% | 7.9 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | 59c28cc340 |
| 2026-10-25 | TRX · close within ±2% · 7d | 49.9% | 81.3% | -31.4 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | 524338afcb |
| 2026-10-25 | ADA · close beyond ±5% · 7d | 58.2% | 59.4% | -1.2 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | 9bce02631f |
| 2026-10-25 | BTC · close beyond ±10% · 7d | 9.3% | 3.1% | 6.1 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | be477e673c |
| 2026-10-25 | BTC · close beyond ±15% · 7d | 2.5% | 3.1% | -0.6 | — | open until 2026-10-31 | 9525d0d529 |
| 2026-10-25 | ETH · close within ±2% · 7d | 29.5% | 43.8% | -14.2 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | da51845055 |
| 2026-10-25 | ETH · close within ±3% · 7d | 40.8% | 59.4% | -18.6 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | 75cee8f5b3 |
| 2026-10-25 | ETH · close within ±5% · 7d | 58.3% | 75.0% | -16.8 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | 22a4609437 |
| 2026-10-25 | BTC · close beyond ±8% · 7d | 15.4% | 3.1% | 12.3 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | 3e94ed9b4f |
| 2026-10-25 | BTC · close beyond ±5% · 7d | 32.4% | 3.1% | 29.3 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | 5839d8ed78 |
| 2026-10-25 | BTC · close beyond ±3% · 7d | 52.2% | 25.0% | 27.2 | yes | open until 2026-10-31 | 2562a676b2 |